Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
523 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND STALL OUT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY. THEN A STRONG COLD WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AREA
TODAY. FRONT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NORTH PART OF CWA. BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
FRONT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ALL DAY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE AND RE-ARRANGE ZONE
GROUPINGS FOR WEATHER. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S.

SPC HAS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. NAM AFTERNOON CAPES 1500-2000...LIS -5...AND
TOTALS 52-54. ETA BUFKIT WET BULB ZERO 9000-9500 FT. SO THREAT WILL
BE THERE IF WE CAN GET THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LIKE MODELS INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AS
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND SPC HAS CAE CWA OUTLOOKED IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW DIFLUENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SUNDAY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AGREE WITH GFS SOLUTION. UPPER LOW MOVES EAST BY MONDAY AND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGH MOVES EAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. WARMER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH OUT WEST DEEPENS AND PULLS MOISTURE TO AREA ALONG WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT SO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CSRA
BUT AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION CB...CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR MOST
OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.

OUTLOOK...LOW VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
929 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

SCZ015-016-020>022-110130-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-
929 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025>031-035>038-041-110130-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-
LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-
CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
929 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.