Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND AS A RESULT HAVE
LOWERED APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. IT LOOKS LIKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. SO CAE WILL ISSUE A QUICK
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVY.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG HEATING PLUS THE APPROACH OF A
LEAD H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS
VERY HEAVY RAIN AIDING DOWNDRAFTS SUPPORTS POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE AREAWIDE BECAUSE OF STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM IN THE NORTH AND STRONGER INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTH.

THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE AND CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE. POSSIBLE
TRAINING AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH SO DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH. MOS POPS APPEAR TOO LOW TONIGHT BASED ON THE SURFACE
FEATURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING SUPPORTS KEEPING A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MET MOS POPS.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH FOR SATURDAY
WITH CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE APPEARS
VERY LOW. USED THE MET MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT
HAS VERIFIED BEST LATELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TUESDAY. USED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING...WITH SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
AGS/DNL CURRENTLY. WILL EXPECT SCT TSRA TO BEGIN DEVELOPING A
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS OR CB
CLOUD GROUP...AND AMEND LATER WHEN CONFIDENCE OF TSRA AFFECTING
TAF SITES WARRANTS. SOME OF THE TSRA COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. SH/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH
SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
FOG AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FA MAY STILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT
WOULD EXPECT THIS AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR DIURNAL TSRA MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
324 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>030-081930-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-
NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-
AIKEN-
324 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 814 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

GAZ077-SCZ031-035>038-041-081930-
BURKE-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
324 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 814 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

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