Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO
RUMBLE ON WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM ALONG MUCH
OF THE LINE WITH RADAR RETURNS ALSO CONFIRMING A WEAKENING TREND.
WILL EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER WILL GENERALLY BE THIN. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE
TO REMOVE POPS AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT. BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP IN THE MIDLANDS.
WRF MODEL AMPLIFIES UPPER TROUGH MORE THAN GFS AND
SREF...RESULTING IN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY AND AIRMASS
DRIES OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. GFS SUGGESTS FRONT MAY BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
SO...AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD ON TO A LOW POP THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THURSDAY TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH POPS APPEAR LOWER FRIDAY WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING DRIER AIRMASS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
MODELS KEEP A WEAK TROF OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A DECENT CHANGE OF PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA JUST N OF THE AREA
ACROSS NC AND ALSO W OF THE AREA OVER GA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE TO NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHT. ON WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOG
AROUND SUNRISE AT OGB AND AGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-240100-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.