Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH
IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AIRMASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF CAE. THESE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH MIDLANDS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MORE DEFINED PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION NOTED. WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY 105 IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALOFT SO EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
EXPECT AN INCREASE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN THE
EASTERN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT. BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP IN THE
MIDLANDS. SREF SUPPORTS HIGH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS IN GENERAL KEEP FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION NOTED.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES SUPPORT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THAT
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION
IS AROUND 8000 FT...THINK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND 08Z-12Z TUESDAY MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR RIVERS. AT THIS TIME...RISK OF STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE LOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION NEAR 8000 FT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-220800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
359 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.