Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. SHEAR AND CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG WILL
GIVE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN A LINE JUST EAST OF BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND EAST OF THOSE
LOCATIONS. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH AND SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKER AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WATCH
ALREADY IN PLACE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN FOR MONDAY. SHORTWAVES WILL GLIDE
THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS MUCH MORE STABLE. KEPT
POPS OUT...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY AND ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE STABLE. WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY AND LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID
RAISE TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THURSDAY WITH THE STRONG FRONT
BRINGING SOME GOOD PREFRONTAL WARNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SHOW UP COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS A NICE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE ECMWF
HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THESE DAYS. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS UNTIL THINGS BECOME A
LITTLE CLEARER. ALSO WENT WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. SOLUM

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY FROM BILLINGS
AND LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOLUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/088 060/087 060/091 060/096 062/082 057/082 059/083
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/085 049/086 050/087 052/091 052/077 048/078 049/079
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 059/088 060/087 059/092 060/100 061/085 055/084 058/088
    60/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/088 062/086 059/092 062/098 063/083 058/083 059/086
    40/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 062/088 061/086 059/089 062/099 062/084 057/081 059/085
    60/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 061/086 060/084 056/089 059/098 058/083 053/083 057/085
    30/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 055/085 055/086 054/087 056/094 054/080 049/079 052/081
    60/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-35>39-56>58-67.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 660 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1144 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-071800-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1144 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM RED LODGE TO
BILLINGS. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

ALSO...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ROCK CREEK NEAR RED LODGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ROCK CREEK NEAR RED LODGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>