Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 180245
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. SNOW WILL REACH WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY
MID DAY FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOW EVENT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T0900Z-081219T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY
THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-181100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
945 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY
THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 180921
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. SNOW AHEAD OF
THIS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
STEADIER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-181730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T0900Z-081219T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
421 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-181730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
421 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. THE
SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

$$

RSH

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 181638
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY. SNOW
AHEAD OF THIS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
STEADIER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FOR MUCH OVER THE
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

NYZ019>021-190045-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T0900Z-081219T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0010.081219T1100Z-081220T0100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SNOW WILL
BECOME STEADIER DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...
WHEN SNOW COULD FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-190045-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0010.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING AROUND 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SNOW WILL BECOME
STEADIER DURING THE REST OF FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WHEN SNOW COULD FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 9
INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-190045-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T0900Z-081219T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0010.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING AROUND 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SNOW WILL BECOME
STEADIER DURING THE REST OF FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WHEN SNOW COULD FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 9
INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ007-008-190045-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.081219T1300Z-081220T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0015.081219T1500Z-081220T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1138 AM EST THU DEC 18 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10
PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA STARTING LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A WIDE VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND
FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...WITH THE WATERTOWN AREA MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES.

MOTORISTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND SECONDARY ROADS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET,
FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
223 PM EST WED DEC 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TAPERING
OFF. A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA. THE STORM WILL END LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING LAKES SNOWS DIMINISHING SATURDAY.
ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE JUST BEEN DROPPED WITH A LATE
MORNING UPDATE. ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MODERATING...AND THAT COMBINED WITH
THE MIDDAY SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP ROADS JUST WET FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED WITH
JUST LEFTOVER FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OBSERVATIONS NEVER
INDICATED ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA...AND NEW 12Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE COLUMN WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW
CONTINUED ICE NUCLEATION AND PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
WE MAY SEE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. TO BE MORE CORRECT...THE BIGGEST FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THIS IF IT DOES OCCUR WOULD BE TERRAIN FORCED UPSLOPING ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE TUG HILL...WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES BEING
SECONDARY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE TUG AND THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND KEEP ACCUMS MINIMAL.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...COLD ADVECTION AT THE
LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO RE-INTRODUCE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A CRYSTAL
GROWTH REGION INTO THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...AND THIS WILL HELP TO
TRANSITION ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE BACK OVER TO SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY
BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED IN EXTENT GIVEN
THAT THE SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND TEND TO
ERODE WITH TIME. FOR NOW...WILL JUST INDICATE SOME LIKELY POPS AND
MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH DRY/QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM A LITTLE FATHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DEEPER COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...MAKING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE A BIT OF AN EASIER CALL WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED. WEDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX WITH SLEET...BUT IT
APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS LIKELY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL FOCUS VERY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DIRECTLY OVER THE BUFFALO COUNTY
WARNING AREA. MODEL QPF FIELDS ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF. SNOW RATIOS MAY DIFFER SOMEWHAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE FEEL THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 8 INCH
TO 16 INCH RANGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE THRUWAY
SOUTHWARD. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A SLIGHT CHANGE NORTH OR
SOUTH IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A CHANGES
TO THIS CURRENT THINKING. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST AND FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EAST.

THIS EVENT LOOKS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LAKE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING
AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT VERY COLD IN THE LOW
LAYERS WITH A NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WE WILL GO WITH MAINLY
FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING HAS OCCURRED WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
EVOLVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW STRUCTURE IMPACTING THE AREA...WITH
ONE LOW WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TWO PARTS...ONE
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOWS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY LAKE
ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THIS EVENT COULD
IMPACT THE ROCHESTER AREA SIGNIFICANTLY...AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH
OF BUFFALO. STAY TUNED.

QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL. LATEST GFS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXITING THE
REGION AT 18Z HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
HAS LED TO A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIG. MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CIGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXCEPTION WILL BE KJHW WHERE CIGS
WILL START THE TAF PERIOD IN THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BUT IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DETERIORATES.

EXPECT CIGS TO RETURN TO MVFR EVERYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION.
A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SE FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO BE WARMER TO THE
WEST AN NOT ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN.

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR KJHW AND KART
WHERE MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. TOWARDS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN ARRIVING SNOW
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW
MONDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
BY 18Z AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY 21Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA LINE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ003>008-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SAGE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-181700-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND BATAVIA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-181700-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-013-014-181700-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-181700-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...
WHICH MAY CARRY THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181700-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1154 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK