Special Marine Warning 77, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS CAUSED THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF
LATE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY AND FINALLY LIFT
OFF TO QUEBEC BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A DRY MILD
DAY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
AND BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WHILE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND LOWER LKS CLOSES OFF AND REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD SFC LOW REMAINS OVER NY
AND PA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL TOUCH OFF PERIODS OF
SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE QUITE HIGH FROM 1.25 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES SO AIR IS QUITE JUICY.
SOME TSTMS WILL  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THE MULTIPLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITHIN A
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO A
DEGREE...BUT POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER INSOLATION OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 700-1200
J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS TODAY WITH BOWS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
LKLY/CAT POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH LKLY TO CAT POPS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST WITH CHC
POPS IN THE WEST. WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT.

CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TSRA WITHIN THE GENERAL COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AND TAKE THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND BRING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...BEFORE THE NEXT TROF
WORKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF
CONVECTION. 850 MB TEMPS OF 16C FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BREAK
80 OVER MOST SPOTS...THEN COOL TO THE M-U 70S ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/HPC GRAPHICS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR RIPPLES MOVING
ALONG IT. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A MORE DISTINCT
SHORT WAVE...THEN LOWER POP TO 20 MONDAY AND 10 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. STILL...IT LOOKS TO BE LESS
UNSETTLED THAN THIS WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A DEG OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL...AVERAGING IN U70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER LKS REGION COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (HIGH DEW PTS) WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING BUT LINGER THROUGH
06Z AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
PRECIP.

STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTORMS.

AREAS OF FOG ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH IFR OR LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

LOOK FOR GENERAL LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FLOW
TENDING WESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY
AT MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SFM/WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-240900-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
455 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-240900-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
455 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJP

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