Special Marine Warning 37, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1238 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ON DUAL LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT. AREA FROM
GRAND ISLAND TO EASTERN MONROE COUNTY THE MOST LIKELY FOR THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE BREEZE. TO THE
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTFIELD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN END OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE AND TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST TO HANG AROUND WITH AN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE
AREA MAY GET SOCKED IN WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN TO ROTATE
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS COLD POOL ALOFT (-20C AT 500
MB) DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO +2C TO
+4C...AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
INTO QUEBEC. A MOIST...COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VORT LOBES/MOISTURE ROTATING ARND THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING CHC OF SHWRS WED NGT/THU WITH TEMPS STAYING WELL BELOW
NORMAL VALUES WITH LOWS WED NGT IN THE MID 40S TO ARND 50 AND HIGHS
THU IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS THE AREA ARND THE UPPER LOW. GFS PRECIP LOOKS OVERDONE AND
WENT MORE TWD ECMWF BUT WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC SHWRS. TEMPS ALOFT
MODERATE WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO +7 TO +11C WITH HIGHS GETTING TO
THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY, GFS HAS MID LVL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
ECMWF HAS WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AGAIN GFS PRECIP LOOKS
OVERDONE AND HAVE GONE TWD HPC GUIDANCE WITH LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS
ONLY SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL LVLS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY SHLD BE PTLY-MSTLY SUNNY WITH ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE SHOWING A
RIDGE EXTENDING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER LKS. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINED LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH ROCHESTER WILL IMPACT KIAG AND
KROC WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH 21Z WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT. KBUF SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE
LAKE BREEZE SHADOW, I DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS THROUGH 21Z TO MOVE
DIRECTLY ACROSS KBUF BUT THE SITE COULD EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS AND RAPID CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION.
KJHW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE BOUNDARY BUT AFTER 18Z
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS ENTIRE ARE HEATS UP.
KART IN THE SAME SITUATION AS KBUF, WITHIN THE LAKE BREEZE OFF
ONTARIO WHICH IS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH
20Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK WESTERLIES RESULTING
IN WAVES UP INTO THE 4 FOOT RANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED
TO BE POSTED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAN
NEAR TERM...TAN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
548 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-171000-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
548 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002>008-011>014-021-171000-
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
548 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
548 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

NYZ002-003-010-011-161730-
ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1151 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A FEW SHOWERS ARE BLOSSOMING ALONG A LAKE ONTARIO BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION. AT 1150 AM TWO SEPARATE SHOWERS WERE NEAR THE TOWNS OF
RAPIDS AND ANOTHER NEAR HOLLEY AND BROCKPORT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THIS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH
ADDITIONAL NEW SHOWERS FORMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING, DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

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