Small Craft Advisory 56, NWS Buffalo, NY

000
WHUS71 KBUF 180212
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

...MORE GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY TONIGHT 
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

LEZ040-041-181015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-080818T0400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1400Z-080819T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO
12 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 12
PM EDT TUESDAY.

ON MONDAY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL REDEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 6
FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-181015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0055.000000T0000Z-080818T0400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1400Z-080819T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY.

ON MONDAY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL REDEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

ON MONDAY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO
10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO
10 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

ON MONDAY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY. 

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. WATER WILL BECOME CHOPPY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON OPEN STRETCHES OF THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

000
WHUS71 KBUF 180737
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...

.A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

LEZ040-041-181545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1400Z-080819T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 12 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 12 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-181545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1400Z-080819T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-181545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM
EDT TUESDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-181545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM
EDT TUESDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-181545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.080818T1600Z-080819T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
337 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. WATER WILL BECOME CHOPPY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON OPEN STRETCHES OF THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SFM

000
WHUS71 KBUF 182006
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND PART OF TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LEZ040-041-190415-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T0700Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL THEN LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN PRODUCE
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES SOUTHWEST OF
DUNKIRK. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-190415-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WAVES OF
3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH WAVES LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-190100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T0100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 5
TO 15 KNOTS WHILE VEERING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT
WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-190415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
HIGHEST 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THE
WIND SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTLINE
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-190100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T0100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
406 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT...
THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH. WATER WILL BE CHOPPY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON OPEN
STRETCHES OF THE RIVER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

000
WHUS71 KBUF 190206
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT AND PART OF TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LEZ040-041-190700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T0700Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL THEN LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN PRODUCE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-191015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE THE HIGHEST 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AT MIDNIGHT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
ALLOW THE HIGHER WAVES TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
WITH WAVES LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

000
WHUS71 KBUF 190707
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT AND PART OF TUESDAY...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LEZ040-041-190815-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T0700Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED...THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

LOZ042>044-191800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THESE WILL HELP GENERATE WAVES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
WAVES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
307 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THESE WILL HELP GENERATE WAVES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH
WAVES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

000
WHUS71 KBUF 191339
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT AND PART OF TUESDAY...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES TODAY WILL WEAKEN
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LOZ045-191445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
939 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES HAVE LOWERED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
WILL ONLY AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

$$

LOZ042>044-191800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
939 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL GENERATE
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH WAVES GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

000
WHUS71 KBUF 191732
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...

.HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WITH
WAVES AFTER THIS EVENING AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

LOZ042>044-191845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-080819T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
132 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 FROM THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE
DIMINISHED. THIS HAS ALLOWED WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER. COOL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MAJOR WARMUP BY WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
A VERY MINOR SHORT WAVE ALOFT.  MEANWHILE THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST FOR THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WEST OF JAMES BAY.  YESTERDAY THIS WAS A TIGHT LITTLE
CIRCULATION NEAR THE GREAT BEAR LAKE WAY UP IN THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...AND IT IS STILL HEADED SOUTHWEST...WITH MODELS PLACING
IT NEAR OTTAWA OR NORTH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.   ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE THIS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
WESTERN NY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEARING THE NORTH END OF MN.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS HARMLESSLY BY
TO OUR WEST...PASSING THROUGH MI OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE OH VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING.

TONIGHT...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE APPROACHING RIDGE
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN A SIMILAR
FASHION TO LAST NIGHT...AND ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED.  THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN TOWARD MORNING HOWEVER.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

ON MONDAY...THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE WESTERN NY WITH A
BREEZY...IF NOT WINDY DAY.  ONCE AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL SOME
MARINE ISSUES AS NOTED IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.  THE
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY AS WELL...WITH THE FIRST DAY AT OR ABOVE 80F IN NEARLY TWO
WEEKS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NY.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...BUT THE RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THE LAKE BREEZES WELL...WELL INLAND.  IT WILL BE HARD FOR CONVECTION
TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY DUE TO THIS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
WESTERN NY ESSENTIALLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES
EAST WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE REAL ACTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY IN THE PATH OF
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. AIRMASS
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE QUALITY OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION FOR MONDAY EVENING. POPS TAPER OF TO MID RANGE CHANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL SEGMENT...WHERE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH WESTERN EXTENT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE RISK GOES...THE SETUP LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NY. VERY FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND MODERATELY STRONG
WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SBCAPE
SHOULD REACH 1500-2000J/KG IN POCKETS OF PEAK HEATING BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOW FIELDS WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WITH POINT SOUNDINGS AT KMSS AND KART SHOWING LONG
HODOGRAPHS WITHIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SW FLOW. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OR EVEN A SQUALL LINE GIVEN THE STRONG MID
LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE...AND A
SECONDARY LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE MENTION IN
GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE 3 EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST
ALONG THE FRONT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITH WESTERN EXTENT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE...BUT EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON TUESDAY A STRONG CP CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COOL/DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL BRING
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT SINCE SPRING...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAIN...AND WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND THE TUG HILL/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER BACK TO AROUND
AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE START
OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR LATER NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALREADY UNDERWAY. THE
NEGATIVE NAO WHICH DOMINATED THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST HAS NOW
FLIPPED POSITIVE AS HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER NORTHEAST CANADA AND
THE DAVIS STRAIGHT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE BREAKDOWN OF DOWNSTREAM HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL ALLOW THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO LIFT OUT BY MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO CHANGES UPSTREAM. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE
OUT A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK...FORCING
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION EARLY IN THE WEEK...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY.
STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. BOTH
DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH JUST A
MINOR INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
INCREASES. 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 1-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY FRIDAY...SUGGESTING A VERY WARM BUT PROBABLY
NOT RECORD BREAKING WARM PERIOD. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MEX
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH DAYS...AS THE MOS EQUATIONS ARE UNDOUBTEDLY BEING
NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY CLIMATOLOGY AT THIS TIME RANGE.

BY SATURDAY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
REACH A POINT WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM...SUGGESTING IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH PARCELS TO THE LFC AND BREACH THE CAP.
STILL...GIVEN THE NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO TAKE THE
FORM OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. ONE POTENTIAL
WILDCARD IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS THE EVENTUAL DESTINY OF
TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REMNANTS OF FAY WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM TAKING THE REMNANTS RIGHT OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN RISK. FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE AND ASSUME FAY
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ON SUNDAY EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PROGRESSING A PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE ALL CAPTURED THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO ARE VERY CLOSE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING. WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREADING EAST ATOP A VERY WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY AS
A VERY WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY. THERE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PREVENT VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NY ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM ON LAKE BREEZES THOUGH...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE WELL INLAND
DURING THE DAY.  ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM ABOUT STEUBEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO WAYNE COUNTY AND EAST.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWER MONDAY AFTERNOONS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MORE IMPORTANTLY...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN SEVERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WITH SOME
FUNNELING OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ON LAKE ERIE
WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FEET AGAIN. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
THAN TODAY...SO EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH
LAKES. MONDAY NIGHT A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST. WITH A
SURGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA...
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 12 PM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
509 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-180915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
509 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-180915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
509 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-180915-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
509 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF