Small Craft Advisory 107, NWS Buffalo, NY

930 
WHUS71 KBUF 290923
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

LEZ040-041-291730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-081229T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0033.081230T0200Z-081230T0900Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
EARLY THIS MORNING. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-291730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-081229T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0033.081230T0600Z-081230T1700Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-291730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-081229T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0033.081230T0600Z-081230T1700Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-291730-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0033.081230T0200Z-081230T0900Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-291730-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0033.081230T0600Z-081230T1700Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
423 AM EST MON DEC 29 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
831 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL FURTHER AWAY TONIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR NEW
YEARS EVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WITH THE RECENTLY-ISSUED UPDATE:

1. HAVE DROPPED ALL WIND HEADLINES FOR AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES
WESTWARD. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF FURTHER AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. WITH THIS CHANGE...THE ONLY AREA LEFT UNDER A WIND
FLAG IS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN THIS LATTER AREA...SURFACE WINDS ARE
STARTING TO COME DOWN AT OUR METAR SITES...BUT KTYX VWP DATA STILL
SHOWS 50 KT WINDS AT 2-3 KFT. GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA...COULD STILL SEE SOME WARNING-CRITERIA GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HENCE THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

2. HAVE DROPPED THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FOR ERIE COUNTY. LAKE
LEVELS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
DIMINISHING WINDS...ALLOWING FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 5 TO
SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THIS WARNING IS NO LONGER NEEDED.

3. HAVE DROPPED THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...AS OUR AIRMASS APPEARS TOO WARM AND MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT IN THIS AREA.

OTHER THAN THAT...JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO KEEP THE FORECAST
CURRENT...RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOW BELOW...

ON MONDAY WE GET A WELL DESERVED BREAK FROM ALL THE EXTREME AND WILD
WX OF LATE. RIDGE SCOOTS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH WITH
STRENGTHENING INVERSION LATER IN THE DAY AS DECENT WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS AGAIN. ANY MINOR LAKE SNOWS E OF LK ONTARIO END BY MIDDAY.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7C MODERATE TO -3C OR SO...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NEAR
40...FOLLOWED NAM TEMPS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM SSW AGAIN LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE AND FAST MOVING STORM TRACK ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
TAKES THE INCIPIENT SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
THEN ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRY MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AS THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME PROPERLY RESOLVING LIGHT WAA
PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

WILL INSTEAD FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION AND BRING
MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO WESTERN NY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING
TO LIKELY EAST OF ROCHESTER OVERNIGHT WHERE DEEPER LIFT WILL DEVELOP
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ALSO PLACED AN AREA OF LIKELY ACROSS
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE GIVEN FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE
TRICKY AT THE ONSET WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING A RAIN/WET
SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT MAY SEE A FEW INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. IT WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY AGAIN AS THIS LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPS BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND -12C DURING THE
MORNING ON ABOUT A 290-300 VECTOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM SODUS BAY OVER TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. IF THE
LATEST NAM IDEA OF AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE
HURON VERIFIES...HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. EXPECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED GIVEN
THE SHORT FETCH AND LESSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT AREAS TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY SHUT DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WAA BEGINS ALOFT.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. ANOTHER RATHER
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY...
WHICH WOULD PLACE THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM TORONTO INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH...
TAKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. IF THIS TRACK WERE TO
VERIFY...THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DIFFERENCE IS VERY SUBTLE...
BUT HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE CAN EXPECT. GIVEN THIS
IS STILL 3 DAYS OFF AND THE SHORTWAVE IN QUESTION IS STILL OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND OUT OF THE NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK...DONT
HAVE ANY PREFERENCE YET AS TO WHICH MODEL SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT.
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ANY CASE...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND THE CLIPPER MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH COLDER AIR IS
FORECAST TO FLOOD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR NEW YEARS EVE. LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND
COLDER...WITH THE LATEST GFS DOWN TO -21C AT 850MB BY 00Z THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD...WITH ABOUT -18C. IN EITHER CASE...IT WILL
BE A VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY NEW YEARS EVE. NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
COLD AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
INCLUDING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE GREATER ROCHESTER.
LAKE SNOWS WILL SHUT DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY. THE LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING
DIFFICULTLY RESOLVING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION. IN A LONGWAVE SENSE...THE PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A
MAJOR SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARDS GREENLAND...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LATEST 12Z/28 GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR MILLER TYPE B
CYCLOGENESIS WITH A PRIMARY LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO BOMBOGENESIS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH A MUCH STRONGER PRIMARY LOW OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND VERY
LITTLE SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE 12Z/28 GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERING RATHER CLOSELY AROUND THE GFS/ECMWF IDEA OF
MAJOR SECONDARY BOMBOGENESIS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...WILL SIMPLY CALL IT A CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THIS CERTAINTY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT FOR SOMEWHERE
IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2330Z..SURFACE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE
THESE DROP 10-20 KNOT RANGE EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EVERYWHERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SOME SNOW.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 20Z...STRONG GALES CONTINUE ON ALL LAKE WATERS. THESE SHOULD
NOW BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES...FIRST ON ERIE AND
EVENTUALLY ON ONTARIO. REPLACED STORMS WITH GALES AND WILL CONTINUE
THEM UNTIL 03Z ON ERIE AND 07Z ON ONTARIO.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A
FAST MOVING AND POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OTTAWA
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALES MONDAY
EVENING THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. GALES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 8 PM...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TONAWANDA AND
ELLICOTT CREEKS WHERE THE WORST OVERALL FLOODING IN YEARS IS
UNDERWAY. IN FACT...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT
RAPIDS HAS BEEN UPDATED TO STRESS MAJOR FLOODING.

WHILE TONAWANDA CREEK HAS CRESTED AT BATAVIA...IT IS NOW BEING
FORECAST TO REACH 16 FEET (MAJOR FLOOD LEVEL) AT RAPIDS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING IN NORTH CLARENCE
AND IN AMHERST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ELLICOTT CREEK HAS
CRESTED AT WILLIAMSVILLE...AND WILL SLOWLY RECEDE LATER TONIGHT.
ALL OTHER FASTER BUFFALO AREA CREEKS WERE SAFELY BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN PLACE FOR BOTH
THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT AND BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE...WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

EAST OF LK ONTARIO...BLACK RIVER IS HIGH...BUT NO ICE PROBLEMS
REPORTED AND FORECAST CREST IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR ICE JAM FLOODING WAS DROPPED EARLIER AS A RESULT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SFM
HYDROLOGY...SFM/RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

NYZ006>008-292045-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RECORDED WIND GUSTS AND ANY WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO NEW YORK.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-011>014-019-292045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RECORDED WIND GUSTS AND ANY WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO NEW YORK.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-021-292045-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-085-292045-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RECORDED WIND GUSTS AND ANY WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO NEW YORK.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-292045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-292045-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
342 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG AMHERST                 43.03N 78.72W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TRANSIT ROAD CLOSED FROM SHERIDAN TO MAPLE DUE TO
            POWERLINES DOWN.

0233 PM     SEICHE           HAMBURG                 42.72N 78.83W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROUTE 5 CLOSED IN HAMBURG DUE TO OVER WASH FROM LAKE
            ERIE.

&&

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIPLEY                  42.27N 79.71W
12/28/2008                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY.
            EASTBOUND LANES CLOSED.

0815 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIPLEY                  42.27N 79.71W
12/28/2008                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLE AND WIRES DOWN

0820 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ORCHARD PARK            42.76N 78.75W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PORTION OF THE ROOF TORN OFF AT THE BUFFALO BILLS FIELD
            HOUSE. CONCESSION TRAILER BLOWN OVER WITH SEVERAL MINOR
            INJURIES.

0821 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO GREATER INTL AR 42.92N 78.72W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS JETWAYS WERE BLOWN INTO THE TERMINAL BUILDING.

0821 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BUFFALO GREATER INTL AR 42.92N 78.72W
12/28/2008  M75.00 MPH       ERIE               NY   ASOS

0821 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO GREATER INTL AR 42.92N 78.72W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CHIMNEY KNOCKED DOWN ON A HOME

0831 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KENMORE                 42.96N 78.87W
12/28/2008  M64.00 MPH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0831 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KENMORE                 42.96N 78.87W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE SIGN BLOWN OVER. TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0902 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER               42.90N 78.67W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROUTE 33 CLOSED BETWEEN HARRIS HILL AND GUNVILLE ROAD DUE
            TO POWERLINES DOWN.

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BENNINGTON              42.84N 78.39W
12/28/2008                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0915 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ALBION                  43.25N 78.19W
12/28/2008                   ORLEANS            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES, WIRES, AND POLES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

0915 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BATAVIA                 43.00N 78.18W
12/28/2008                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES, WIRES, POLES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

0917 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROCHESTER               43.17N 77.62W
12/28/2008  M63.00 MPH       MONROE             NY   ASOS

            ROCHESTER AIRPORT

0920 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCHESTER               43.17N 77.62W
12/28/2008                   MONROE             NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE IN MONROE COUNTY.

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ATTICA                  42.87N 78.28W
12/28/2008                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

0950 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N NORTH TONAWANDA     43.07N 78.87W
12/28/2008                   NIAGARA            NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON RIVER ROAD

0954 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YORK                    42.88N 77.87W
12/28/2008                   LIVINGSTON         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1024 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NUNDA                   42.58N 77.94W
12/28/2008                   LIVINGSTON         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

1025 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PORTER CENTER           43.23N 78.96W
12/28/2008                   NIAGARA            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MOUNT MORRIS            42.72N 77.88W
12/28/2008                   LIVINGSTON         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

1040 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ONTARIO                 43.22N 77.28W
12/28/2008                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1040 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 N MACEDON             43.14N 77.30W
12/28/2008                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1048 AM     SEICHE           1 SW BUFFALO            42.88N 78.87W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WATER LEVEL ON LAKE ERIE CRESTED AT 8.1 FEET ABOVE LOW
            WATER DATUM AT THE BUFFALO COAST GUARD STATION. FLOOD
            STAGE IS 8 FEET.

1050 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CANANDAIGUA             42.89N 77.28W
12/28/2008                   ONTARIO            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN

1050 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MANCHESTER              42.97N 77.23W
12/28/2008                   ONTARIO            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

1054 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WATERTOWN               43.97N 75.91W
12/28/2008  M63.00 MPH       JEFFERSON          NY   ASOS

1130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WATERTOWN               43.97N 75.91W
12/28/2008                   JEFFERSON          NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES, WIRES, POLES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

0112 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG AMHERST                 43.03N 78.72W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TRANSIT ROAD CLOSED FROM SHERIDAN TO MAPLE DUE TO
            POWERLINES DOWN.

0233 PM     SEICHE           HAMBURG                 42.72N 78.83W
12/28/2008                   ERIE               NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROUTE 5 CLOSED IN HAMBURG DUE TO OVER WASH FROM LAKE
            ERIE.

&&

HITCHCOCK