Small Craft Advisory 105, NWS Buffalo, NY

032 
WHUS71 KBUF 270221
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
921 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...GALES LIKELY SUNDAY...

.A 30.6 INCH HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS HIGH PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA...AND WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A 29.5 INCH LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 29.0 INCHES.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL CROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST GALES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

LOZ045-271030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-081227T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1400Z-081229T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
921 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY.
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AT THE
EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF 3 TO
5 FEET...ESPECIALLY FROM STONY POINT AND GALLOO ISLAND NORTH TO
THE HEAD OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-040-041-271030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1100Z-081229T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
921 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. 

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-062>065-271030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1400Z-081229T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
921 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

546 
WHUS71 KBUF 270914
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
414 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008


LOZ045-271715-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-081227T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1400Z-081229T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
414 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

WINDS ARE OFF SHORE THIS MORNING WITH WAVES LESS THAN 4 FEET.
A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AT
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-040-041-271715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1100Z-081229T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
414 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. 

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-062>065-271715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0015.081228T1400Z-081229T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
414 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BRING NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN. THE RAIN MAY START OFF AS SOME FREEZING RAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL
BELOW FREEZING...THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A MODEST SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STILL SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL OF OSWEGO
COUNTY.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY AREAS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND WELL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO SLOWLY RISE AND SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...INTO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE FINGER LKS AND GENESEE VALLEY AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S
CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR 50.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR PLUS 12C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S AND WE COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW READINGS AROUND 60F...EXCEPTION MAY BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE IT MAY BE A BIT COOLER THERE. BUFFALO WILL HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR A RECORD HIGH WHICH IS 58F/1971.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S TO
LOWER HALF OF THE 50S.

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY RID THE AREA OF MOST OF THE SNOWPACK. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MELTING SNOWPACK AND FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF RAINFALL IS MORE THAN THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING FLOODING MAY BECOME A GREATER CONCERN. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER DAMAGING WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
SHOWING A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SPAWN LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THIS SYSTEM HOOKING NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REACH WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE BY 00Z MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 983MB. A
POWERFUL TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY MID
TO LATE MORNING THEN REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT AT AROUND 60
MPH...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
EVEN THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT...THE
DYNAMICS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MUCH FARTHER NORTH...TAKING THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE
COUPLET WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THE WINDS ALOFT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STRONGER IN THIS EVENT HOWEVER...WITH THE
LATEST 12Z NAM SHOWING 70 KNOTS DOWN AS LOW AS ABOUT 3000 FEET JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY SLOT
WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEAR
DRY SLOTS OFTEN MARK THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WITH SOME ADDED MIXING.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THESE AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS
GIVEN THE FUNNELING EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COMING DOWN THE
LENGTH OF BOTH LAKES. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADVISORIES FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRULY DAMAGING WINDS IS MUCH LOWER IN THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST A 1 TO 2
HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN JUST
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT. TEMPERATURES
WILL START THE DAY IN THE 50S...AND MAY EVEN CRACK 60F ACROSS
CENTRAL NY WHERE SOME DIURNAL WARMING AND DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 30S BY EVENING IN WESTERN NY.

THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -9C OR SO. THIS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW ON THE TUG HILL WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OFF LAKE ERIE...THE AIRMASS PROBABLY IS
NOT COLD OR MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES. A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CHANGEABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT
TRULY COLD. AFTER BEING POSITIVE FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS OR SO...THE
NAO AND AO INDICES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO
GO NEGATIVE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING RETROGRESSING FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BRITISH ISLES TO NEAR GREENLAND BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT HEIGHT FALLS AND A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BY DAY 7-8 SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. BEFORE THAT...DAYS 4-6 WILL FEATURE
A RELATIVELY BENIGN ZONAL FLOW.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT IF THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING HOLDS WE
MAY SNEAK A DRY DAY IN. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...TUESDAY COULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING ABOVE ZERO. EVEN THE GFS WOULD
SUPPORT A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE WEAK LOW
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE AT
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO ABOUT AVERAGE WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT
COLDER AIR CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE...BUT
THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT A MAJOR EVENT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

THINGS BECOME MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT DAY
7 AND DAY 8 /FRI AND SAT/. THE RETROGRADING OF HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING BACK TOWARDS GREENLAND COMBINED WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES
ALONG THE WESTERN NOAM COAST WILL CREATE A LONGWAVE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CATCHING ONTO
THIS IDEA WITH MOST MODELS DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW BY THE
FRI/SAT TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND
TIMING HOWEVER. THE 00Z/26 GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS BOTH
SUPPORT A MILLER TYPE B CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO WITH A WEAK PRIMARY
LOW WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS YIELDING TO A MAJOR EAST COAST
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AND A SUBSEQUENT NOREASTER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE CANADIAN GEM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE INCIPIENT TROUGH...AND
DEVELOPS A STRONG PANHANDLE HOOK TYPE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WHICH SUPPORT THE CANADIAN GEM IDEA...WITH ANOTHER GROUP SUPPORTING
THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. THE 12Z/26 GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN GEM...FURTHER ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

THE DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR CWA WOULD BE STRIKING
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL CAMP VERIFIES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
WOULD HAVE A DECENT SNOW EVENT FRI/SAT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN GEM IDEA WOULD HAVE ANOTHER HUGE
WARM UP FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT. FOR NOW WILL JUST
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY AND MONITOR FUTURE MODEL
TRENDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO WATERTOWN THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARILY A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SPREADING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN
AND FOG WITH SOME LOCAL IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHEAR...WITH 2K FOOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING INTO THE 45 KNOT TO 55 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IN THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS...STRONG WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE ACTION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS MOST OF
THE NY NEARSHORES OF BOTH LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE
EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM STONY POINT AND
GALLOO ISLAND UP TO THE HEAD OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THIS WILL
PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SUBSIDING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KNOT RANGE...ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP WAVES
RELATIVELY TAME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO 40 KNOT GALES AND ISSUE
A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ020-
     021.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
         NIGHT FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

NYZ001-010>012-019-085-271015-
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS. WINDS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY OR WARNING SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002>005-013-014-020-021-271015-
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S COULD LEAD SOME HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-271015-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 50 COULD LEAD SOME HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-271015-
OSWEGO-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY AWAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 50 COULD LEAD SOME HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. SNOWMELT
COMBINED WITH RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY OR WARNING
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-271015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-271015-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
506 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF