Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 232102
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
503 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYC003-232130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080623T2130Z/
ALLEGANY NY-
503 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BELFAST...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 21 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANGELICA BY 515 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4208 7831 4243 7831 4251 7784 4248 7782
      4248 7774 4247 7772 4232 7772 4208 7801
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 288DEG 18KT 4233 7811

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 232118
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
517 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYC003-232130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080623T2130Z/
ALLEGANY NY-
517 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL ALLEGANY COUNTY...

AT 515 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIRDSALL...OR 16 MILES WEST OF ARKPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALMOND BY 530 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4208 7801 4216 7814 4240 7813 4245 7793
      4248 7774 4247 7772 4232 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 277DEG 24KT 4236 7793

$$

RSH

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 232134
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYC003-232144-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080623T2130Z/
ALLEGANY NY-
534 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ALLEGANY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 534 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4208 7801 4216 7814 4240 7813 4245 7793
      4248 7774 4247 7772 4232 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 277DEG 24KT 4236 7792

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF RATHER MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SLIDES EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR, IF CELLS REMAIN LOCKED ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WE
WILL SEE TRAINING OF ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD ON FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO FUEL ORGANIZED
COVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN CASE A
SVR TSTM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

ONCE RAIN DOES WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT, SOME OF OUR AREAS MORE PRONE
TO FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOG
IN THE 3AM TO 7AM TIMEFRAME.

MODELS ALL INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT WESTERN NEW YORK BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY NOON ENDING ANY
THREAT OF RAINFALL.

THREAT OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
SKIES GENLY MSTLY CLDY. TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS OUR REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD NEARLY
ZONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SLOW
WARM ADVECTION AT LEAST AS DEEP AS THE 850 MB LEVEL. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WE ARE
A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND THE GFS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FLOW PATTERN ZIPPING EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
ALONG AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE WRF-NMM IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MODEL
QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN FURTHER MODEL
RUNS.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
DAY BUT THE CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY BE THE BETTER WEATHER
OF THE PERIOD WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE WITH ONLY WEAK
IMPULSES WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ECMWF SHOWING SOME SHORT
WAVE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD SHOWING UP IN THE
MREF ENSEMBLES MEANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW
DURING THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
CATEGORY PROBABILITIES BUT IF THE UPPER LOW DOES DEVELOP AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SITES SUCH AS KROC AND KJHW WILL
BRIEFLY GO MVFR FOR CEILING AND VSBY IN THUNDERSTORMS. KBUF, KIAG AND
KART SHOULD BE PROTECTED A BIT BY COOLER LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION AT THOSE SITES BUT AFT 21Z AS THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WEAKEN WHATEVER IS LEFT THUNDERSTORM-WISE COULD MOVE
THROUGH THOSE TAF SITES AS WELL, BRIEFLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR FOR BOTHE CEILING AND VSBY.

THE ACTIVITY SHLD WIND DOWN BY 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD
08Z-09Z SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS
1/2 MILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CIGS DOWN TO 5 HND FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING VALLEY FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR. CHC SHWRS/TSTMS.
FRIDAY...VFR. CHC/SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOWER LAKES WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
WEAK. MARINERS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON THE WATCH THOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TIS EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...TMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
518 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-240930-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
518 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>008-010-011-240930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
518 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-240930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
518 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SAGE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYZ001>004-231830-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK
1243 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 1245 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SATELLITE AND RADAR WERE
INDICATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE GOING TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED, AT LEAST INITIALLY, TO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF ROUTE 104, BUT COULD SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH BY 230 PM TO 3. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
313 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYZ019-020-232015-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
313 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...

AT 310 PM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FROM FINDLEY
LAKE AND CLYMER NORTHEAST, TO CHERRY CREEK AND ARKWRIGHT. THIS
AREA ALSO COVERED THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY, FROM
CONEWANGO TO ASHFORD HOLLOW, NORTHWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS
CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HAIL. BE ON THE ALERT FOR PONDING ON ROADS, AND SOME POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THROUGH 4 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYZ019-232100-
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
347 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...

AT 340 PM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER CONTINUED TO INDICATE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT
LIGHT, GUSTY WINDS, AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THE HEAVIEST STORM WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN LAKEWOOD AND BEMUS POINT MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS
STORM WILL BE NEAR GERRY AROUND 4 PM, AND NEAR ELLINGTON AND
CHERRY CREEK AROUND 415 PM. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY MOVING
ACROSS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NYZ019-232115-
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
401 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. AT 355 PM, THE HEAVIEST STORMS STRETCHED BETWEEN
BEMUS POINT AND JAMESTOWN, ALL WERE MOVING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
NEAR KENNEDY AND ELLINGTON AROUND 415 PM. THESE STORMS CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
WATCH FOR PONDING ON ROADS, AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 E ELLICOTTVILLE       42.27N 78.63W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       CATTARAUGUS        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TNIZIOL