Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 071706
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NYC075-071745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-080807T1745Z/
OSWEGO NY-
104 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY...

AT 103 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONSTANTIA...OR 11 MILES WEST OF 
CAMDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL BE OVER OR 
JUST NORTH OF ROUTE 49 BY 135 PM EDT.  

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLEVELAND BY 135 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4316 7587 4315 7592 4318 7596 4318 7599
      4321 7607 4337 7607 4337 7587 4334 7587
      4332 7585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 317DEG 11KT 4332 7597

$$

ZAFF

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 071744
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NYC075-071753-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-080807T1745Z/
OSWEGO NY-
143 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM EDT...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4316 7587 4315 7592 4318 7596 4318 7599
      4321 7607 4337 7607 4337 7587 4334 7587
      4332 7585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 317DEG 11KT 4323 7586

$$

ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY. THE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER QUEBEC UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SHOWERS LIKELY NOW AND THEN.
NORMAL SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 14Z...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE ABOUT
TO CROSS INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

WE STILL EXPECT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO -15 TO -16C WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHERE ANY
SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED...850 MB TEMPS OF +10 TO +11C WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...AND THIS WILL COUPLE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F TO PRODUCE SBCAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY ZONES WHICH SHOULD SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE...AND WHERE
EVEN SOMEWHAT GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED.

COUPLED WITH FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ANY
SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE...SUCH
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. GIVEN
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KFT...THERE WILL ALSO BE
A GOOD CHANCE THAT ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL...AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS TO
THE GRIDS AND WORDED FORECASTS.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AS THE COLDEST AIR AT 500 MB (AVERAGING ABOUT -16C) WORKS ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE THE PCPN SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COOL CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY DROP TO AROUND +9C AND +6C FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL
LOW FOR GENERAL LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN IN THE COOL W-NW FLOW, WE
HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS EAST-SE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGHER
CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WILL GO WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW. ALSO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
TSTMS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY,
THEN ONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUMS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
LINGERING, AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN DURING THE DAY.
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
IN WITH FAIR WEATHER MONDAY. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS DRYING
AND THE 00Z GFS KEEPS MOISTURE FROM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A CLUSTER OF
MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ABOUT TO CROSS INTO
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL CAUSE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 10K FEET...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...BUT VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER
TO MVFR IN STEADIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE PCPN WILL BECOME ENHANCED AT TIMES SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE SHOULD BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO NEAR OR ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CIRCULATE VERY COOL AIR ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 20 TO 25K FT WITH A LAKE DELTA T OF 13 OR SO WILL RAISE THE
STRONG POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APB
NEAR TERM...JJR/TJP
SHORT TERM...APB
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...JJR/TJP
MARINE...APB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-080915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
514 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-080915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
514 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ANGOLA                  42.64N 79.03W
08/07/2008                   ERIE               NY   PUBLIC

            THREE BOATS STORED ONSHORE WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED FROM
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AS WELL.

&&

TNIZIOL