River Flood Warning 12, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 070103
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

NYC003-051-121-070133-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080207T1600Z/
/WLLN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT WELLSVILLE.
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.0 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 6.9 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...BANKS OVERFLOW 
  AND BEGIN TO FLOOD LOWLYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE LEVEEES IN PLACES 
  SUCH AS SCIO AND WHITESVILLE. MINOR DAMAGES.

$$

NYC003-051-121-070703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080207T1734Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.080206T1922Z.080207T0600Z.080207T1134Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.3 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG REACH (BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH). LITTLE 
  DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-070703-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.080207T0600Z-080208T0600Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.080207T0600Z.080207T1200Z.080208T0000Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 6.1 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MORE WIDESPREAD 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING, SOME BACKYARD AND BASEMENT FLOODING 
  CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI BUT MINIMAL DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-070702-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080208T1920Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.080206T1801Z.080207T1200Z.080208T1320Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO E. 
  RIVERSIDE DR. 1 TO 3 MI US FROM UNION ST BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-070702-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080208T0900Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.080206T1836Z.080207T1200Z.080208T0300Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.7 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-070702-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080207T0812Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.080206T1206Z.080206T1900Z.080207T0212Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE-MINOR FLOODING  SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. LITTLE OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$

NYC029-037-063-070702-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0013.080207T2024Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.080207T2024Z.080208T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
803 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS.
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY.
* AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS. THERE ARE MANY 
  ROAD CLOSURES FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON 
  INCLUDING TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD, RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING 
  BEGINS INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM, BLACK, 
  BEEMAN, AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE FARMLAND 
  FLOODING.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 070409
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

NYC003-051-121-071009-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080207T1734Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.080206T1922Z.080207T0600Z.080207T1134Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.3 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG REACH (BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH). LITTLE 
  DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-071009-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.080207T0600Z-080208T0000Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.080207T0600Z.080207T1200Z.080207T1800Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 6.1 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MORE WIDESPREAD 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING, SOME BACKYARD AND BASEMENT FLOODING 
  CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI BUT MINIMAL DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-071009-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080207T2100Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.080206T1801Z.080207T0306Z.080207T1500Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-071009-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080208T0622Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.080206T1836Z.080207T1200Z.080208T0022Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.7 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-063-071009-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0013.080207T2024Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.080207T2024Z.080208T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS.
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY.
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS. THERE ARE MANY 
  ROAD CLOSURES FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON 
  INCLUDING TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD, RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING 
  BEGINS INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM, BLACK, 
  BEEMAN, AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE FARMLAND 
  FLOODING.

$$

NYC029-037-070439-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080207T0812Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.080206T1206Z.080206T1900Z.080207T0157Z.NO/
1109 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE.
* AT 11 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 070935
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA


DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

NYC009-071535-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080208T0122Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.080206T1801Z.080207T0706Z.080207T1922Z.NO/
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 2 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD...WATER OVERFLOWS ONTO E. 
  RIVERSIDE DR. 1 TO 3 MI US FROM UNION ST BRIDGE.

$$

NYC009-071534-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080208T0622Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.080206T1836Z.080207T0830Z.080208T0022Z.NO/
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-063-071534-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.080208T0600Z-080208T1200Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.080208T0600Z.080208T0600Z.080208T0600Z.NO/
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS. THERE 
  IS LOWLAND FLOODING OF FARM AREAS AND SOME ROAD CLOSURES SUCH AS 
  FLETCHER, BURDICK, KIRBY AND TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD.

$$

NYC003-051-121-071005-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080207T1734Z/
/PRTN6.1.ER.080206T1922Z.080207T0300Z.080207T0635Z.NO/
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GENESEE RIVER AT PORTAGEVILLE.
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 2 AM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.0 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW INTO 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG REACH (BELFAST TO LETCHWORTH). LITTLE 
  DAMAGE.

$$

NYC037-055-071005-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080208T0000Z/
/CHRN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
435 AM EST THU FEB 07 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE.
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 5.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 4.4 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MORE WIDESPREAD 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING, SOME BACKYARD AND BASEMENT FLOODING 
  CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI BUT MINIMAL DAMAGES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN COLDER AIR FILTERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER
IN THE DAY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THURSDAY EVENING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRIER AIR. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO
THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AND A COMPLICATED FORECAST
AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE LOW, OVER WESTERN PA AND NE OHIO, SOME WARMER
AIR WILL SPREAD NE INTO THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WITH THE
WARMER AIR AT THE SFC SPREADING SOME RAIN INTO THE AREA NEAR THE
STATE LINE. A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS NE.
MORE ICE ACCUM IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS TOT HE SOUTH OF BUFFALO
WHERE A QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE BUF-IAG-ROC REGIONS. SOME ICING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT IN THE FAR NORTH IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW THE PRECIP SHLD CHANGE TO SNOW. HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMS SHLD BE IN THE 4-7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...1-3 INCHES OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX FRM THE SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES NORTH INCLUDING THE BUF-IAG-ROC REGIONS AND AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.  ON THURSDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FRM EASTERN NY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH SNOW SHWRS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW AND SLGTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE WRAP ARND AREA
OF THE LOW. SNOW SHWRS SHLD END BY LATE AFTN WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY WITH JUST SCT SNOW SHWRS FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OPENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN DRY, HOWEVER A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL SLIDE IN LATE, BRINGING A FLURRY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH THE SKY
REMAINING CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY CLOUDY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. PARTS OF THE REGION WILL
SEE FLURRIES FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ALOFT. THE SREF GOES DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF DO PRODUCE A LITTLE SNOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVES QUITE
WEAK HAVE GONE WITH JUST FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF
AA UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...
WITH A PACIFIC FLOW RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES...MOST LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE PRIMARILY LOOK AT DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE MODERATED EXTEND OF ARCTIC AIR THIS FAR
SOUTH. COULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES STARTING THE PERIOD NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY THEN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AT
WATERTOWN. RAIN AT JAMESTOWN WILL TRANSITION TO THIS WINTER MIX
AFTER 20Z. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CEILINGS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
LAKE ONTARIO WILL RUN AROUND 15 KNOTS AND COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AT THE NIAGARA FALLS AND ROCHESTER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY VFR WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES THIS MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET...
ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DIMINISH WINDS/WAVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GALE FORCE
WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS REMAIN IN FLOOD. SEE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WORKING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. TEMPERATURES STILL
ABOVE FREEZING DOWN ALONG THE STATE LINE. COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DOWN THERE BEFORE A
TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD
ONLY SERVE TO AGGRAVATE THE HIGH WATER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER IF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
MATERIALIZE DOWN ALONG THE STATE LINE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJP
SHORT TERM...DRT/ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

NYZ001>004-010-011-072045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
342 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005>008-072045-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
342 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-072045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
342 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-072045-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
342 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
547 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-070200-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
547 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...FREEZING RAIN MAKING TRAVEL CONDITIONS SLICK...

A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SLEET HAS MOVED
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK MAKING UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS SLICK. BOTH MAIN ROADWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADWAYS MAY
BE DANGEROUS. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.
IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL THIS EVENING...DRIVE VERY CAUTIOUSLY AND
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

ZAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-070245-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
645 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...

MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MIXED BAG
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING MAKING OUTDOOR TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 640 PM AND 7 PM. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE THRUWAY AT AROUND 7 PM AND CONTINUE
NORTH INTO NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THIS WILL MAKE ROADWAYS
TREACHEROUS. THE WINTRY MIX WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.

ZAFF