Lake Effect Snow Warning 16, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 021630
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OVER LAKE ERIE 
MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO
METRO AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND END BY EARLY EVENING NORTH OF BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS INTENSIFIED EAST OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS CENTER EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEWIS COUNTY. THE BAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE TUG HILL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH
TOWARDS WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND END LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ019-020-021730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

LAKE SNOWS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

NYZ006>008-030030-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS
CENTER EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEWIS
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH INTO WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...AND
LEWIS COUNTY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ012-085-022100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LAKE SNOWS HAVE BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ERIE...AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS ELSEWHERE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

JJP

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 022021
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

A WEAKENING BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THE TUG HILL REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SNOWBAND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS THE MOVES TOWARD THE
WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM AREA AFTER SUNSET. 

NYZ012-085-022130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
321 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

$$

NYZ006>008-030300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
321 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES IS EXPECTED..THEN THE SNOW BAND WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.


$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 022117
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN...

NYZ006>008-022230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
417 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND MUCH LIGHTER.
THERE MAY STILL BE AN INCH OR TWO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS BUT IMPACTS NO LONGER JUSTIFY A WARNING.

$$

SAGE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE
LAKES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN AS WINDS BACK
THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM
THE WINTRY WEATHER OF LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP MIDWINTER COLD AND MORE LAKE
SNOWS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT. FIRST SOME SYNOPTICS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CYCLONE OPENS UP AND
BECOMES CAPTURED BY THE POLAR JET. A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MINOR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH SOME LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OUTSIDE LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE BAND IS BEHAVING AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH A NICE BROAD BAND THROUGH SKI COUNTRY. THE BAND HAS REACHED ITS
SOUTHERNMOST POINT...AND THE KCLE RADAR ALREADY SHOWS THE WESTERN
END OF THE BAND LIFTING NORTH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
THIS WOULD STRONGLY SUGGEST THE BAND STARTING TO MOVE NORTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS AT THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE THEN QUICKLY STARTS TO BACK THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACK TO
ABOUT 240 DEGREES BY 18Z THEN ABOUT 230 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CARRY A LAKE BAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA...REACHING THE SOUTHTOWNS AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN THE
CITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY THE NORTHERN SUBURBS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING
DURING THE BANDS TRANSIT NORTH ACROSS THE METRO AREA AS 700MB TEMPS
WARM FROM ABOUT -16C AT 12Z TUE TO -12C BY 18Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED ABOVE THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A WEAKENING TREND AS THE BAND MOVES
NORTH.

AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...OUR LOCALLY RUN 6KM WRF IS PROBABLY A LITTLE
OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF OF AROUND 0.4 INCHES UP INTO THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES BETWEEN 3AM AND 10AM ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. THE SOUTHTOWNS MAY
CATCH 2-4 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY THE
TIME THE BAND MAKES IT TO THE CITY AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS.
CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND LOOK GOOD...BUT WE WILL
PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DROP THEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BAND MOVES
NORTH AND WEAKENS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL DEFINED LAKE BAND HAS FORMED FROM
WATERTOWN TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF LEWIS COUNTY AT 1130Z. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO ABOUT 260 DEGREES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TAKING THE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL AND
NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL SWING BACK
NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO 240 DEGREES BY
EARLY EVENING.

AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...EXPECT THE BAND TO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. FORTUNATELY THE BAND WILL BE ON THE
MOVE...THUS LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. TOTALS OF
2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY
THROUGH MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF OSWEGO
COUNTY. THE TUG HILL WILL LIKELY CATCH MORE...MAYBE 4-7 INCHES WHERE
UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE QPF.

TONIGHT THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL QUICKLY FALL APART TO FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. THE LAKE ONTARIO ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE
LONGER...LIFTING UP INTO WATERTOWN WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THOUSAND
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND WED NT WHILE THE NEXT UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
STEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL DELAY THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL. THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS MID
CLOUD SPILLING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT SSW WIND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL
MIX SOME OF THAT MILDER 850 MB AIR (0 TO +3) DOWN FOR MAXES AT LEAST
IN MID 40S. MILD WX WILL CONTINUE MOST OF WED NT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER AN EARLY
DROP...WENT WITH NEAR STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT
WED NT SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LIKELY POPS IN WEST
LATE...CHC EAST.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURS MORNING AND MIDDAY
WITH A BURST OF SNOW...THEN ROBUST COLD ADVECTION SETS IN WITH 850
MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -3C AT 12Z TO -14C BY 00Z AT BUF. WILL GO WITH
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AND TAPER OFF POPS...BUT BOOST
THEM AGAIN SE OF LAKES AS LAKE EFFECT GETS GOING LATER IN THE DAY.
IT WILL NOT BE EXTENSIVE AT FIRST...WITH POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND
STRONG NW FLOW LIMITING FETCH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THURS
NT AS FLOW BACKS TO 280-290. IN FACT...NAM12 SHOWS A STRONG
MULTILAKE STREAMER EXTENDING FROM SUPERIOR AND HURON TO LK ONTARIO
AND OSWEGO/WAYNE COS AFTER 06Z FRI. LAKE EFFECT FLAGS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED AGAIN STARTING LATE THURS AND CONTINUING INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD (SEE BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OF -16C H85 AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TWO
MAIN PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OFF LK
ERIE...THE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CHAUTAUQUA/NRN CATTARAUGUS/
SRN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW
BACKING JUST A BIT FRI NT WHICH WOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY INTO THE
BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS. 00Z GFS HAS FLOW BACKING EVEN FURTHER WHICH
WOULD PUSH ACTIVITY INTO METRO AREA LATE FRI NT INTO SAT AM. STILL
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THIS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR BUF METRO LATE
FRI NT INTO SAT AM. OFF LK ONTARIO...THE PLUME WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE TUG HILL WITH SOME DRIFT NORTHWARDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SAT...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WATERTOWN AREA.

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM LK SUPERIOR TO LK ONTARIO
BY LATE SAT NT AND ON TO THE NEW ENG COAST ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE BULK OF THE LAKE
SNOWS DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY...LAKE EFFECT WILL GET SHOVED TOO FAR NORTH AND LOSE ITS
LAKE SOURCE...BUT NOT BEFORE IT LIFTS UP ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS IN THE MORNING. THERE WILL THEN BE A GENERAL AREA OF
LGT SNOW AS WELL AS THE CLIPPER NEARS...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TEND
TO DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OUT. WENT WITH 50 POPS IN NON-LAKE AREAS FOR
NOW FOR SAT AFTN AND EVE.

VERY COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE (H85 TEMPS OF -20C) WILL
PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN FOR THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MULTIPLE BANDED LAKE SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
ON A 320 FLOW.

FINALLY...A SFC RIDGE CROSSES ERN LAKES ON MONDAY...PROVIDING FOR
ANOTHER RESPITE FROM ALL THE LAKE SNOWS WITH SOME SUNSHINE BUT TEMPS
STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES TODAY AND WILL
BRING SOME IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS AT TIMES. OFF LAKE ERIE THE LAKE
SNOWS ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN KJHW AND KBUF...WITH IFR CONDITIONS ENDING
AT KJHW BY AROUND 14Z AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH. THE BAND WILL MOVE
INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BUFFALO TERMINAL BETWEEN 16Z-18Z WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
KBUF RECOVERING TO VFR. THE BAND WILL WEAKEN WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT...SO ONLY BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIAG.
AT KROC...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR BETWEEN LAKE BANDS...BUT THE
LAKE ERIE BAND MAY EXTEND THAT FAR INLAND AS IT MOVES NORTH GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO KROC
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS COMING
INTO KART AT 1130Z WITH IFR/LIFR. EXPECT THIS TO HAND OVER OR NEAR
THE AIRPORT THROUGH 13Z-14Z BEFORE MOVING SOUTH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR TO KART BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z-02Z.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BANDS TODAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. TONIGHT THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME...MVFR/IFR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS...IFR EAST OF THE LAKES IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
FRIDAY...IFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES..VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING BRISK SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH BRISK WESTERLIES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND THEM THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY (48
HOURS). IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS REACH GALE CRITERIA ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY REACH 30 KNOTS FOR AWHILE TODAY AND AGAIN JUST AHEAD AND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...RSH/SFM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
452 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-031000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
452 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-031000-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
452 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO NWS BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-031000-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
452 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS REPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO NWS BUFFALO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
452 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

NYZ003-020830-
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER
148 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...QUICK BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVING THROUGH ROCHESTER...

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS EXTENDING WELL INLAND
AND WILL CROSS THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
3 AM. THE SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SUBURBS SUCH AS BERGEN...CHURCHVILLE...CHILI...AND
GATES. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
THE SNOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT MAY
DEPOSIT A QUICK INCH OF ACCUMULATION. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION
AND BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
533 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

NYZ012-019>021-085-021200-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
533 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS SKI COUNTRY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...

A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SKI COUNTRY OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW THROUGH 700 AM
WILL BE FOUND FROM DUNKIRK AND FREDONIA INLAND TO CASSADAGA...
GOWANDA...SPRINGVILLE...ELLICOTTVILLE...ARCADE...WARSAW...AND
FILLMORE. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AND KEEP ROADS SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION. SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS IMPACTED BY SNOW THIS
MORNING INCLUDE THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY BETWEEN SILVER CREEK
AND WESTFIELD...ROUTE 219 SOUTH OF ORCHARD PARK...ROUTE 400 AND
ROUTE 16 SOUTH OF EAST AURORA...AND INTERSTATE 86 BETWEEN THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE AND ANGELICA.

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
626 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

NYZ007-021300-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
626 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE SNOW APPROACHING WATERTOWN...

AT 620 AM...A TEN MILE WIDE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDED FROM
SACKETTS HARBOR AND DEXTER...NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE CITY OF
WATERTOWN...TO EVANS MILLS AND PHILADELPHIA AND ON GOUVERNEUR.
THIS BAND WAS DRIFTING SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT WATERTOWN AND FORT
DRUM BY 7 AM. SNOW WAS FALLING HEAVILY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
BAND...WITH RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.
MAIN HIGHWAYS AFFECTED THROUGH 8 AM WILL INCLUDE I-81 NORTH OF
ADAMS...ROUTES 11 AND 3 NORTH AND EAST FROM WATERTOWN. THE
SNOWBAND SHOULD SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERTOWN AREA AFTER 9
AM.

SFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

NYZ012-019-020-085-021330-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
704 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE SNOWS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...

A LARGE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW THROUGH 830 AM WILL BE FOUND FROM WESTFIELD TO DUNKIRK...
FREDONIA...CASADAGA...GOWANDA...SPRINGVILLE...CHAFEE...ARCADE...
AND WARSAW. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS AND KEEP ROADS SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION. SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS IMPACTED BY SNOW THIS
MORNING INCLUDE THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY BETWEEN SILVER CREEK
AND WESTFIELD...ROUTE 219 SOUTH OF ORCHARD PARK...ROUTE 400 AND
ROUTE 16 SOUTH OF EAST AURORA...AND INTERSTATE 86 BETWEEN THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE AND ANGELICA.

HITCHCOCK