Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2008
Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Feb 4, 2008, 2:02 PM EST for 12 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 5, 2008, 10:53 AM EST. It was in force for 31 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 4, 2008, 2:02 PM EST (19:02 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 5, 2008, 10:53 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 6, 2008, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 31 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 836 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 89 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 653 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS61 KBUF 041902 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 202 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOWMELT...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN GROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-050315- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0001.080205T2300Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 202 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ...AND FROZEN SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. BASEMENT FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS IS ALSO EXPECTED SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZE. ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING OF LARGER STEM RIVERS...COULD EXTEND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER...GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TMA
8 follow-up statements
000 WGUS61 KBUF 050312 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1012 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOWMELT...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN GROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-051115- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.080205T2300Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1012 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ...FROZEN SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. BASEMENT FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS IS ALSO EXPECTED SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZE. * ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING OF LARGER STEM RIVERS...COULD EXTEND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK... CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$
000 WGUS61 KBUF 050849 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 349 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOWMELT...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL NEAR THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN GROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-051700- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.080205T2300Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 349 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN ...SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. BASEMENT FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS IS ALSO EXPECTED SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZE. * ICE STILL REMAINS IN SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS AND THIS ICE WILL MOVE DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS TO FORM. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING OF LARGER STEM RIVERS...COULD EXTEND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK... CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ SAGE
000 WGUS61 KBUF 051601 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1101 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-060015- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.080205T1553Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1101 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MILD TEMPERATURES LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT FLOODING CONDITIONS TO SEVERAL AREA CREEKS. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS AND BASEMENTS HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT AND OVERNIGHT RAINS MAKE IT INTO THE WATERWAYS. * A STORM SYSTEM WORKING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK... CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TMA
000 WGUS61 KBUF 052010 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 310 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-060415- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 310 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WITH SOIL CONDITIONS BEING SATURATED ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING AND INCREASED WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY BRINGING THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. * RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING...LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM...LOWLAND...ROADWAY AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TMA
000 WGUS61 KBUF 060342 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1042 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN WEDNESDAY... NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-061145- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1041 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING MORE RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WITH SOIL CONDITIONS SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION COULD BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING AND INCREASED WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND CREEKS. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BRINGING THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING TO THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES. * RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING...LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM...LOWLAND...ROADWAY AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. IF YOU LIVE IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$
000 WGUS61 KBUF 060945 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 445 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH TODAY... NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-061745- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 445 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. IT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF TODAY. ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL BE MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET TODAY...THE HEADWATERS OF MANY OF THE STREAMS WILL BE GETTING MAINLY RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL PRODUCE A FLOOD THREAT...INCLUDING OUR GAGED STREAMS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING IS FOR THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES. * RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. SOME OF THE SLOW RISING STREAMS COULD HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS INTO THURSDAY OR BEYOND. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. IF YOU LIVE IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ SAGE
000 WGUS61 KBUF 061557 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1057 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008 ...FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH TODAY... NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-062300- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1057 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO... ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON * MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH FALLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX WITH ANY LEFTOVER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TRANSITIONING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AS WELL. DUE TO THE RAINFALL RECEIVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SEVERAL AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. OTHER WATERWAYS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING IS FOR THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES. * SOME OF THE SLOW RISING RIVERS AND CREEK COULD HAVE FLOOD PROBLEMS INTO THURSDAY OR BEYOND. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH ARE IN FLOOD OR COULD GO INTO FLOOD INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE ALLEGHENY RIVER... GENESEE RIVER...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...OATKA CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CAYUGA CREEK...CAZENOVIA CREEK...ELLICOTT CREEK AND TONAWANDA CREEK. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. IF YOU LIVE IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. $$ TMA
000 WGUS61 KBUF 062257 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 557 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008 NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-070000- /O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080206T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 557 PM EST WED FEB 6 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST. ONGOING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF ELLICOTT CREEK. OTHER AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT RECEDING SLOWLY. WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS MINIMAL. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. $$ ZAFF
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 4, 12:36 PM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 12:36 PM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1236 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WITHDRAW NORTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS US TODAY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO OUR REGION. TUESDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF US. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR FINALLY BUILDS OVER US IN ITS WAKE. MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE WITH US FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SHORT THAT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES IS GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WELL NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...WE MAY STILL SEE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WELL EAST OF KBUF. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INCREASED LIFT ACCOMPANYING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT. WE WILL GO FOR CATEGORICAL POPS BUT ALL RAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE WRF BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN EITHER CASE THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH ALONG WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THERE IS STILL BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW POSITION...THE GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE WRF. WE WILL BE GOING CLOSER TO THE WRF SOLUTION AS THE GFS HAS HAD RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. THE WRF SOLUTION REMAINS THE WARMEST SO HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL BACK OFF TO LIKELY POPS AS MOST OF THE LIFT FOCUSES ON A SECONDARY LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE HYDRO EVENT. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF HAVE WARM ENOUGH PROFILES FOR RAIN EARLY BUT COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ONCE AGAIN WILL WILL GO WITH THE WRF SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN MORE QUICKLY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES STILL SUPPORT ANY PRECIP BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DECREASES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST 00Z/04 GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL KEYING IN ON A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DELIVERING A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO SOME PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS. A LOOK AT THE OLD 12Z/03 GEFS SHOWS ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS COLD SHOT. UTILIZING A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS COLD SHOT IN THE MODELS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN PACIFIC ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NUNAVUT. THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE EVOLUTION AND THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE GONE ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND THE NEW COLD MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY WITH MID 20S. ALSO INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT. LOOKING FURTHER OUT THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...AS MENTIONED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS 22 MEMBER SST FORECAST MODEL /DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL/ SHOWS VERY LITTLE VARIANCE IN PREDICTING THAT THE SIGNIFICANT LA NINA WILL REMAIN THIS STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SPRING. THE UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER SINCE THIS PAST SUMMER...ADDING CREDENCE TO THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS. THE MODEL GOES ON TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENED FORM OF LA NINA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUMMER. IN TERMS OF LA NINA...LOCAL STUDIES FROM THIS OFFICE HAVE SHOWN A NEARLY 80 PERCENT CORRELATION BETWEEN MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINAS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN NEW YORK IN FEBRUARY. THIS POSITIVE TEMP DEPARTURE IS FURTHER EXAGGERATED BY A PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE NAO...WHICH A CPC ENSEMBLE MODEL IS EXPECTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MONTH. THESE OBSERVED TEMP DEPARTURES AND RESULTING TEMP TRENDS AGREER WITH THE CPC FEB TEMP FORECAST WHICH IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR LEVELS AS LOW STRATUS HAS ERODED WITH THE MIXING OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR AT 18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN NEW YORK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 05Z WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING INTO AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND PERHAPS IFR IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MIST...WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUING. AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST TO DETERIORATE WITH MVFR CIGS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND IFR WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS APPEARS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY VFR WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIMITED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE WEATHER BY MIDWINTER STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. WAVES SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THESE SUBTLE NORTHEAST FLOW CASES ARE SOMETIMES STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE ACTION REDUCED. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEEPENING LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PRODUCE STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM THIS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR QPF IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE WEAK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF. THE SECOND EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS POTENTIALLY MORE TROUBLING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING. PWAT WILL BE RUNNING 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS EVENT. THE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG MID WINTER DYNAMICS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. LATEST NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH HAPPENS TO TARGET THE HEADWATERS OF MANY WESTERN NY RIVERS/CREEKS. LATEST SREF DATA SHOWS A 50 PERCENT OR BETTER PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NOT A HUGE SNOWPACK LEFT WITH MOST COOP SITES REPORTING ONLY 1-3 INCHES ON THE GROUND. WATER CONTENT IN THIS IS QUITE HIGH HOWEVER AFTER THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OF A FEW DAYS AGO. THE 1.7 INCHES ON THE GROUND HERE AT BUF HAS A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.7 INCHES. THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS ARE ALSO FULL OF ICE...WHICH INCREASES THE RISK OF ICE JAMS. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN EXPECTED QPF AND MELTING OF RIPE 1-3 INCH SNOWPACK...AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SAGE NEAR TERM...SAGE/TJP SHORT TERM...SAGE LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH AVIATION...TMA MARINE...HITCHCOCK HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 4, 5:34 AM EST, 8 hours 28 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 534 AM EST MON FEB 4 2008 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-051045- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 534 AM EST MON FEB 4 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARM AIR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. EXISTING ICE JAMS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE EXPECTED RUNOFF. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-051045- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 534 AM EST MON FEB 4 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SAGE
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 10:25 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Ontario and 1 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.