Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
DIMINISH AFTER SUNET EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HAD A QUICK CONF CALL WITH SPC AND DECIDED
TO EXPAND SVR WATCH TO COVER THE REST OF VERMONT THRU 7PM THIS
EVENING. STILL MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NRN NY...BUT STILL A RISK OF SOME SVR STORMS MAKING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AS EXPECTED...RADAR IS LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. THUS FAR THE
BULK OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
JUST A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. STILL MESOANALYSES INDICATING CAPES
IN THE RANGE OF 1500J/KG ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO
CNTRL VT. CURRENTLY A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AS THE REGION IS DOWNWIND FROM LK ONTARIO WHICH IS
PROVIDING A BIT OF A STABLIZING FACTOR. HOWEVER WATCHING A CLUSTER
OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SHOULD BE MOVG INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 20Z. THUS
RISK OF SVR WX CONTINUES IN THAT NECK OF THE WOODS AS WELL.
PRIMARY THREAT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSES CONTINUES TO BE HAIL UP
TO 1IN IN DIAMETER.

WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DIMINISH QUICKLY AS SUNSET COMES AND GOES
AND WE LOOSE THE HEATING INFLUENCE. THINK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS OVERNIGHT SO MCLDY LOOKS GOOD.
KEPT IN SMALL POPS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY
TO SPROUT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...HOWEVER DONT
THINK IT SHOULD BE TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...PRIMARY FEATURE THAT WILL CONTROL OUR WX
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE BIG UPPER TROF THAT WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER US. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING...ROUGHLY -18 TO
-20C TOMORROW AND AROUND -22C ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH COLD AIR
UPSTAIRS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE...HOWEVER WITH
JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING CU WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND CLOUD
OVER THE SKIES...EFFECTIVELY COUNTERACTING THE SUNS HEATING AND
KEEPING IT FROM GETTING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. THIS SELF DESTRUCTIVE
SUNSHINE WILL MEAN WE WILL SEE FAR MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKIES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TSTM SO HAVE INCLUDED
IT IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A STRETCH. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT ALSO MEANS SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 8-10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
SINCE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR PRECIP...
HAVE PLACED THE BULK OF THE SHOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WHEN YOU AVERAGE IT ALL OUT...YOU GET A LOT OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND 50PCT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPERATURES WARM OVER THE WEEKEND.

EXACT TIMING LOW LIFTING NORTH AND OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THIS
PERIOD UNCERTAIN BUT IN THE LARGER SCALE THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY
VCTY BTV 12Z THU WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWING MORE NORMAL HEATING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE VALUES OF
100-1500 J/KG OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXCEPT MVFR WITH
VCTS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AS AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION. LOOKS INITIALLY
LIKE BOUNDARY HAS FORMED VCTY KBTV AT 17Z AND SOME SHRA NOTED ON
RADAR. EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP NEXT HOUR OR SO VCTY KBTV. TSRA AND
SHRA TO DIMISH AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING THREAT OF MVFR AND IFR AFT
05Z AND ESPECIALLY 08Z WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHEST THREAT WOULD BE KMPV AND KSLK 08-12Z. FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY TOMORROW AND EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFT
SUNRISE WITH WITH EARLY INSOLATIONAL HEATING. EXPECT THAT BY 15Z
OR SO VFR AGAIN BUT VCSH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN NY BY 18Z.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS NEAR AREA...COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
DAILY CHCS OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG
W/BRIEF MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

VTZ001-002-005-006-008-016-017-161900-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-GRAND
ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING...BURLINGTON...ESSEX JUNCTION...MORRISVILLE...SOUTH
BURLINGTON AND WINOOSKI
155 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

AT 148 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 14 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE NORTH
END OF BURLINGTON AT 150 PM.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ESSEX JUNCTION BY 210 PM...NEAR ESSEX
CENTER...5 MILES NORTH OF WILLISTON BY 220 PM...NEAR JERICHO BY 240
PM...5 MILES NORTH OF WEST BOLTON BY 250 PM AND NEAR UNDERHILL STATE
PARK BY 300 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER MAY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

TABER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
158 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             1 N BURLINGTON          44.50N 73.23W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 MINUTES OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE NORTH END OF
            BURLINGTON.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
257 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSONVILLE          44.64N 72.83W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM     HAIL             1 E NORTH UNDERHILL     44.59N 72.91W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

            BB TO PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

PS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSONVILLE          44.64N 72.83W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM     HAIL             1 E NORTH UNDERHILL     44.59N 72.91W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

            BB TO PEA SIZE HAIL.

0255 PM     HAIL             NORTH UNDERHILL         44.59N 72.93W
06/16/2008  E0.50 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   AIRPLANE PILOT

0300 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT VALLEY         44.59N 72.86W
06/16/2008  E0.25 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

LAHIFF