Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Burlington, VT

000 
WWUS81 KBTV 240950
RFWBTV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 AM EDT THU APR 24 2008

NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-242130-
/O.CON.KBTV.FW.W.0001.080424T1400Z-080424T2200Z/
EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
550 AM EDT THU APR 24 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VERMONT AND FOR CLINTON
AND ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TODAY WILL PRODUCE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS CONDITIONS SHOULD ANY BRUSH
OR FOREST FIRES DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL DID NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF TO THE CURRENT DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION MAY RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE
BEHAVIOR. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE RELAYED TO ALL FIRE
PERSONNEL IN THE FIELD.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

WGH

000 
WWUS81 KBTV 242143
RFWBTV

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
543 PM EDT THU APR 24 2008


NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-242245-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080424T2200Z/
EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
543 PM EDT THU APR 24 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF VERMONT AND CLINTON
AND ESSEX COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. 

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WERE BLOWING IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED AS
THE EVENING WEARS ON. HOWEVER...CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 
STILL REMAIN...WITH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...BUT
READINGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 30 PERCENT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

FIRE PERSONNEL SHOULD STILL BE AWARE THAT VERY DRY FUELS EXIST
AND COMBINED WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH SUNSET...ANY
FIRES THAT DO START COULD EXHIBIT ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

$$

EVENSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT WED APR 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT WITH JUST
A COUPLE OF MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. SHWRS IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT ARE MOVG EAST ACRS SRN ONTARIO
AND APRCHG ST LWR VLY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR MOST OF NRN
NY FOR THIS PM. ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER AS FRONT PUSHES EAST. THUS
ONLY SLITE CHC POPS FOR MOST OF VT...AS PREVIOUS FCST INDICATED.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE
CONTD WITH SLITE CHC TRW. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN 70S TO
NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS...BUT THEN WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE NOW BEGINNING
TO APPEAR ON THE HORIZON PER THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLNS...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER MORE SEASONAL WX BY NEXT WEEK AND A
POSSIBLE DECENT RAFL EVENT PRECEDING THIS CHANGE. INITIALLY...MILD
TO WARM WX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY PRECEDING A MORE PRONOUNCED
FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ERN LAKES/NY STATE. MEAN
850 HPA TEMPS AND DRIER AIR PRECEDING BNDRY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB SOMEWHAT ABV MEXMOS NUMBERS ON SATURDAY AND HAVE RAISED VALUES
SOME 2-4 DEGREES ACCORDINGLY...ESP EAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT FRONT
CROSSES AREA WITH A MORE ENHANCED THREAT OF -SHRAS. MEAN BNDRY LYR
TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK AND MOIST ADIABATIC ALONG
BNDRY...THUS RISK OF THUNDER APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. THEN LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN POST FRONTAL FLOW.
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES POSSBL...ESP ERN VT WHERE DEVELOPING
ERLY FLOW MAY ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

THEREAFTER...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF MORE UNSETTLED CONDS RETURNING
TO THE REGION FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS MEAN UPPER FLOW BECOMES
AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER ENERGY ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN/GREAT LAKES STATES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
OPERATIONAL AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT...TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH MOST IN
CONSENSUS OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS
WOULD PLACE FA AND NEW ENGLAND UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AS SYSTEM TRUDGES EASTWARD...LEADING
TO AN INCREASING RAFL THREAT BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN WL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH MOVEMENT TWD THE SLV.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE LINE IS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA
ATTM WITH MOVEMENT TWD THE SLV. CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INITIAL
BAND OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACRS SLV ATTM...DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY
LLVLS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER WL CONT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTN AND
SPREAD TWD NORTHERN NY. BASED ON LLVL MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS
MOVING NORTH OF FA...WL JUST MENTION A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 20-24Z OF
3-4SM IN -SHRA BR WITH CIGS BTWN 045-055. GIVEN...LOW SFC DWPTS
AND HIGH LCL/LFC FEEL CLOUD BASES WL BE HIGHER THAN USUALLY. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON CRNT SATL PICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CU ACRS
DACKS/WESTERN CPV...WL MENTION SCT DECK BTWN 060-080 THRU THIS
AFTN. OTHERWISE...LESS DYNAMICS/MOISTURE FOR PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WL
MENTION VCSH BTWN 21-01Z THIS EVENING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT...THEREFORE EXPECT P6SM
SKC TO DEVELOP...WITH WINDS BECMG NW BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRES WL PROVIDE TAF STIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z
SAT. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LESS OF RAINFALL...AND WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RELIEF TO THE CURRENT DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE
INDICATED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS PROLONGED DRY SPELL AND MIN
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH UP AT THIS TIME AND
WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE THE SITUATION WITH LATER MODEL
GUIDANCE.

LATEST LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING A PATTERN CHANGE
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBLITY OF SEEING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 435 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL INTO LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-240715-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JMG