Wind Advisory 16, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS MINIMAL CHANGES OCCUR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DOING A SUFFICIENT
JOB OF DEFLECTING ALL SFC RIDGES TO THE EAST AND HALTING THE
PROGRESSION OF ANY COLD FRONTS BEFORE THEY REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE SOME STARTING WEDNESDAY...WHEN A CUTOFF LOW
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST RACES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS IT
CROSSES...IT WILL GENERATE A LEE TROUGH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TEXAS. AS THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW ON IF THIS FRONT WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION. OTHERWISE NIL POPS AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE REGION

&&

.AVIATION...
A WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
WIND FOR MFE IN HIDALGO COUNTY. VFR SKIES WILL ALSO PREVAIL. THE
INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS IS KEEPING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT AND IS CAUSING
THE INCREASED WINDS. A LLJ OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IS IN PLACE A FEW
THOUSAND FEET THICK ABOVE THE DECK...SO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP IS
LIKELY DURING TAKEOFF AND LANDING.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 42020 REPORTS MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TEMPORARILY...BUT I EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
AND GULF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST
FILLS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TEXAS AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
LODGED OVER THE NORTH GULF. STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT... KILLING THE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER SOUTH ON
TUESDAY... BACKING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
HELPS TURN WINDS TO SOUTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO
MODERATE. A COLD FRONT IS BEING FORECAST FOR N EXT FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE LOCAL MARINE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  68  83  70 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  69  85  69 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            86  67  86  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              88  70  86  71 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  70  87  72 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  69  81  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1117 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-280430-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1117 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>257-280430-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1117 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.