Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 122306
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
503 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

TXC261-489-122330-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080212T2330Z/
WILLACY TX-KENEDY TX-
503 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES...

AT 503 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY. THESE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO 
LYFORD. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SEBASTIAN...PORFIRIO AND SANTA MONICA

HAIL UP TO ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN 
REPORTED IN PORT MANSFIELD WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH 
OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 2635 9786 2658 9792 2670 9746 2661 9745
      2656 9740 2660 9735 2673 9738 2675 9735
      2644 9723 2641 9728 2645 9727 2659 9734
      2654 9742 2642 9740 2635 9745 2631 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 332DEG 15KT 2648 9738 2640 9774

$$

SPEECE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
131 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST BUT NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND. IT APPEARS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
850MB CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LID FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BUT THE FRONT SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SHOULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...A DRYING AND
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES APPEARS TO CUT-OFF AS A LOW/TROUGH AND DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX SIMILAR TO TODAYS EVENT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BUT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH/LOW HANGING
BACK TO THE WEST...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE 500MB LOW
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TX SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY.  MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 16
KNOTS AND SEAS 4.6 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
STILL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL NOT BEGIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ABOUT 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE LAGUNA SO WILL BEGIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA
AT THIS TIME.   WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK
WILL BE GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  70  57  77 /  30   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          54  72  57  77 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            52  72  54  79 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              52  75  54  79 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  76  53  79 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   55  67  59  76 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

PUBLIC/GRIDS...61
MARINE/AVIATION...65
MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
340 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

TXZ248>257-131200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
340 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM. THE COUNTIES WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE KENEDY...
WILLACY...HIDALGO AND CAMERON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN CAMERON...WILLACY...KENEDY AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

SPEECE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

TXZ253>257-130030-
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
404 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

...DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 4 PM CST...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM THE HIDALGO WILLACY
KENEDY COUNTY LINE ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 77...NORTHEAST
TO PADRE ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
KENEDY COUNTY COAST.

THE LINE WAS EASING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT
AROUND 15 MPH...AND WILL REACH NORTHERN WILLACY COUNTY...INCLUDING
YTURRIA AND PORT MANSFIELD...BEFORE 430 PM...AND NORTHEASTERN
HIDALGO COUNTY...INCLUDING SAN MANUEL...AROUND THE SAME TIME. THE
REST OF WILLACY COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BETWEEN 430 AND 515 PM.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN
HIDALGO AND ALL OF CAMERON COUNTY...AND THE LINE MAY HOLD TOGETHER
AFTER 515 PM AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE POPULATED AREAS ALONG
HIGHWAYS 83 AND 77...INCLUDING HARLINGEN...LA
FERIA...MERCEDES...AND BROWNSVILLE.

RESIDENTS OF THE THESE AND OTHER AREAS CAN EXPECT A 10 TO 30
MINUTE PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINS...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...AND HAIL. STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZE OR GREATER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS...FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SURF TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV.

BSG