Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE FACTORS COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
SHOWED PW OF 2.09 INCHES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CAPPING INVERSION
PRESENT...CAPE OF 3700..AND TT OF 50. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOSEYING
SOUTHWARD JUST NORTH OF THE RIVER...NOT CURRENTLY PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS ITSELF. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AGAIN
THREATENING. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER MIDLEVEL VORT TONIGHT ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE HELD
FURTHER SOUTH IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL NOT DIMINISH PROBABLY UNTIL MONDAY WHEN SATURATED ATMOSPHERE
IS FINALLY FORCED BACK OUT TO SEA BY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED ALL DAY
AND NOT FROM ANY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS
WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER MOISTURE
DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER CONCERNS
WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHEAST WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SLOWLY VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN GOOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  66 /  80  50  50  40
BROWNSVILLE          82  66  82  66 /  80  50  50  40
HARLINGEN            81  64  82  65 /  80  50  50  40
MCALLEN              83  67  80  67 /  80  50  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  66  80  67 /  80  50  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  70  78  67 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
528 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-161200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
528 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH 20 KNOTS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

TXZ248-160630-
ZAPATA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ZAPATA
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOP OVER ZAPATA COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TAMAULIPAS JUST WEST OF THE TOWN OF FALCON. THE STORMS
ARE MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MARBLE SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR.

GB

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