Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
730 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...PULSING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THREATENING
WESTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
EDGING CLOSER AND MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER
THIS EVENING. MAY UPDATE POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD THE
POTENTIAL COVERAGE INCREASE. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG...10 PLUS DEG C...CAP FROM 2 TO 4
KFT...BUT MOIST ADIABATIC ABOVE THAT. CAPPING WINDS HAVE DISAPPEARED
WHILE THE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO JUICE UP WITH 1.74 INCHES PWAT.
CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL CAPABILITY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008...CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO NORTH ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL...REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 7 FEET WITH A 7
SECOND PERIOD AT 19 CDT/24 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO ROUGH
SWELLS...AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OFFSHORE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DECREASING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER MOST
OF TEXAS.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND THICKENING AND LOWERING CEILINGS. INCREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA GMZ150-155-170-175 UNTIL 7 AM CDT THU.
&&

54/66/69

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-151100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
645 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM
HOGG COUNTY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE. AND...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THE
LOCAL BEACHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR AREA MOTORISTS DUE TO
PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS IN ZAPATA...STARR...AND JIM HOGG COUNTY SHOULD
REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
533 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ248-249-252-142345-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
533 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE IS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AT THIS TIME. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NUEVO LEON...AND ARE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MILES PER HOUR.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO GROWN IN INTENSITY...AND MAY
AFFECT ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

TOMASELLI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
732 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ248-249-252-150145-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
732 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE CONTINUES TO
TRACK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NUEVO LEON AND
NORTHWEST TAMAULIPAS...AND ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
25 MILES PER HOUR.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO GROWN IN INTENSITY...AND WILL
AFFECT ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

TOMASELLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
845 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             ZAPATA                  26.89N 99.26W
05/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       ZAPATA             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN ZAPATA

&&

HART

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
859 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW ZAPATA             26.87N 99.29W
05/14/2008                   ZAPATA             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF OF MOBILE HOME 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZAPATA
            ON FM 469. REPORTED BY OIL COMPANY TO SHERIFF OFFICE.
            TIME OF REPORT IS ESTIMATED.

&&

HART