Red Flag Warning 27, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS84 KBRO 271629
RFWBRO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1029 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WINDS DECREASING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...

.WHILE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS MAY REMAIN BREEZY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...WINDS IN GENERAL ARE DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

TXZ250-251-253>257-271730-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FW.W.0027.000000T0000Z-081227T1600Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1029 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

ALTHOUGH A RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...SHIFTING
WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TODAY WILL CREATE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREADING. CURED FUELS IN THE UPPER
VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF WILD FIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
703 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION
AFTER SUNSET. LATEST MDL RUNS AGREE WITH TIMING OF FROPA AND MAX TEMPS
ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS.

NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 151 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008/A MID LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL HAVE
LESS MID LEVEL SUPPORT...AND WILL NOT PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. INSTEAD...THE LEADING EDGE WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA AND CAUSE UNSETTLED WEATHER. ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
LATE FRIDAY WILL FINALLY BUT TEMPORARILY TURN WINDS TO NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. CLOUDY SKIES AND DREARY WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIP
WILL HANG AROUND NEXT WEEKEND AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE.

LOADED THE GFS WIND GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. THEY SUGGEST THAT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AROUND MID DAY
SATURDAY. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN FRONTIER AROUND MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES AS SUGGESTED BY THE ADJMAV WILL COOL
TO NEAR 60 EAST AND NEAR 50 WEST...STILL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL...OR IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST. A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE OVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL LEVEL OUT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...AT 6 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 6 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD.
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREAS SATURDAY EVENING SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MODERATE OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CWA. REDUCED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  61  68 /  10  10  50  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  83  61  69 /  10  10  50  20
HARLINGEN            69  84  61  68 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              68  86  58  71 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  84  54  66 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  80  62  69 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 9 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM CST SATURDAY
GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

58/63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
911 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-271200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
911 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MAY POSE ANOTHER
RISK TO FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR ALL AREAS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.