Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE VALLEY BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO SHOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN WEST KANSAS WILL BRING ANOTHER
VERY WINDY DAY FOR THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND ARE ALREADY NOTED JUST OFF
THE SFC...SO WILL BE POSTING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY. PW VALUES
OF 1.5 INCHES LAST NIGHT WILL JUMP UP TO 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW
MORNING...WHILE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE LAST 2 WEEKS
COMPLETES ITS TRANSIT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SEABREEZE TO BEGIN TO FORM UP STARTING TOMORROW. WINDY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW MAY KEEP SHEAR FACTOR TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE SHOWERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES...HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS.
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SEABREEZE CHANCES CONTINUING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL KEEP BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
WINDS BRING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE
LOWER TX COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AT 8 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 21G27 KNOTS AT BUOY020
THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC MDLS ALONG WITH GLOBAL WAVE WATCH SEA
STATE MDLS SUGGEST THAT DISTURBED GULF WX BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL
NOT EASE SOON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS AND WINDS AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SCA FOR ALL
MARINE AREAS ARE POSTED NOW THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY. RIP CURRENT RISKS
WILL BE HIGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE LATEST MDL
PROJECTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE 20FT LEVEL AND RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35
PERCENT HAVE NECESSITATED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. RAINFALL LAST MONTH IN
THAT REGION HAS DRIED DURING THE RECENT HEAT WAVE...CREATING
TINDER DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE
YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  79  91  81 /  10  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          93  79  92  78 /  10  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            96  77  93  77 /  10  10  20  30
MCALLEN              97  77  95  77 /   0   0  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  77  98  76 /   0   0   0  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  80  90  80 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ248-249-252.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-051015-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
630 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AREA
BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES. IN
ADDITION...THE CONTINUED DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY FUELS.
THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG AREA BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND INCREASE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES FROM THE ADJACENT
GULF OF MEXICO WEST OVER OUR REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PHILO/CASTILLO