Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS84 KBRO 161817
RFWBRO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
117 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...

.AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GULF. DUE
TO CURED FUELS AND THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS... STRONG WINDS
ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

TXZ248>257-170245-
/O.CON.KBRO.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080417T0300Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
117 PM CDT WED APR 16 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS...COMBINED WITH CURED
FUELS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY POSSIBLY REQUIRING ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS
INCLUDE SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER AND CURED
FUELS...OR THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR 2 HOURS OR MORE AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
HIGHER WHEN FUELS ARE NOT CURED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

SPEECE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
728 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE WINDS DECREASING TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWA WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD, THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...AT 6 PM BUOY020 INDICATED WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AS WELL AS THE WESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN TROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AND
BUILD RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MARINERS OF SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANTICIPATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPO BKN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS AS WELL AS INLAND TO HIGHWAY 281
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH MOISTURE CHARTS CONTINUING
TO INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE PERSISTING TONIGHT AND DEEPENING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS NEARING 35 KNOTS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TXZ248>257
FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY TO 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....63
MARINE/AVIATION...58
MESOSCALE...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-161100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
821 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE RISK OF WILDFIRES...IN COMBINATION WITH THE CURED FUELS ACROSS
THE AREA...TO DEVELOP. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A RESULT.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS STRENGTHENS. A DEEPENING ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH ANOTHER LOW TO FORM ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS MIXING
TO THE SURFACE THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM HIDALGO TO BROOKS COUNTY EAST TO THE COAST.

IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A MODERATE OF RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL
BEACHES AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GB