Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 082015
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
315 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

TXC427-082025-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080908T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR-
315 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED IN WESTERN STARR COUNTY...

THOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF
HIGH STANDING WATER ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF
ENCOUNTERING WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS THEM
BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

&&

LAT...LON 2671 9896 2637 9864 2629 9873 2630 9877
      2632 9876 2633 9880 2637 9882 2636 9891
      2639 9894 2638 9895 2638 9897 2640 9898
      2640 9901 2647 9911 2650 9911 2655 9916

$$

61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A MOISTURE
INFLUX MOVES IN FROM THE GULF.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF 2.22 AND A
K-INDEX OF 31. AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD BE IN THE DRY PORTION OF THE HURRICANE.  DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND SEAS OF
THREE TO FOUR FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY DUE TO DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXTENDING NORTH AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...IS CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREAS AND
EVEN INLAND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE...IKE WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF AS A STORM FROM CUBA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SWELLS ARRIVING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY. SWELLS
COULD EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 10 FEET OR MORE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK. ADJUSTED THE
GRIDS A BIT FOR THE TIMING AND HEIGHT OF SWELLS LATER IN THE
FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO HANG ON TO HIGHER SEAS A BIT LATER IF IKE
CHURNS IN THE GULF LONGER.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING A CONTINUED MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH
GULF SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER THE LOCAL AIRPORTS AND INLAND.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AS WELL. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LIKELY. WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. FLIGHTS MAY HAVE TO DODGE AROUND SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  79  90 /  30  50  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  77  92 /  30  50  20  30
HARLINGEN            77  92  77  93 /  30  50  20  30
MCALLEN              78  93  79  95 /  30  50  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  77  93 /  30  40  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  89  80  91 /  30  50  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

GRIDS/PUBLIC...65
AVIATION/MARINE...54
MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-091100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
555 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE WHWN RAINFALL RATES NEAR OR EXCEED TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY
ONCE AGAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE TAKES THE STORM ACROSS
CUBA TODAY AND TUESDAY...EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MUCH WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE. IKE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS HE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE WAVE MODELS SHOWS
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM IKE REACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BASED ON THE WAVE MODELS AND THE CURRENT TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST OF IKE...SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY...REACHING ABOUT
SIX FEET OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BUILDING TO BETWEEN 6
AND 10 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SWELLS COULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10
AND 12 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...GIVEN IKES CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH.

ALTHOUGH IKE IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF IKE
COULD CHANGE...AND LOCAL SWELL AND BEACH CONDITIONS WOULD BE
AFFECTED CORRESPONDINGLY. MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS SHOULD MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS FREQUENTLY FOR UPDATES.

A NUMBER OF HAZARDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH SWELLS FROM IKE.
THESE INCLUDE HIGH SURF...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...AND COASTAL
FLOODING.

HIGH SURF WILL POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. LARGE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK FROM THE EAST IN THE SURF ZONE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH SURF CAN ERODE BEACHES...MOVE LARGE LOGS
AND WASH OVER JETTIES...AND IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE IN
THE SURF ZONE DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS.

DUE TO THE BUILDING SEAS...RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH AS
EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. PLEASE
GO TO THE WED SITE HTTP://RIPCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON RIP CURRENTS.

HIGH SURF WILL ALSO MAKE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTLINE. HIGH TIDES LATER THIS WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM
1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. BEACH FLOODING CAN OCCUR
WHEN TIDES REACH 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THEREFORE...
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY. WATER COULD FLOOD THE BEACH UP TO THE
DUNES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS...EVEN REACHING MAIN ROADS ALONG THE
BEACH.

DRIVING ALONG AREA BEACHES IS DISCOURAGED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HIGH WATERLINES AND ROUGH SURF.
IF YOU BECOME STRANDED...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AND SEEK SAFETY ON
HIGHER GROUND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

54

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1010 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

TXZ250>257-081715-
BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...
ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...
RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...
PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1010 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF IS RESULTING IN THE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
LOCAL MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE CAPABILITY
CAN BE QUICKLY OVERWHELMED. SO FAR...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH
AN HOUR HAVE BEEN NOTED BY RADAR ESTIMATION...BUT HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

54/65