Snow Advisory 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WWUS41 KBOX 032029
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008

...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES ACROSS 
OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...

.A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE 
WARMER OCEAN WATERS AND BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO
OUTER CAPE COD INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAZ022-032130-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-080104T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN
329 PM EST THU JAN 3 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES. THEREFORE THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR BARNSTABLE COUNTY.

SEVERAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD FROM ORLEANS TO TRURO 
RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

STRAUSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. READINGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN WELL BELOW ZERO. WILL
KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING FOR WORCESTER COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM AS
WIND CHILL READINGS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 15 BELOW.

LIGHT OCEAN AFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST 3 KFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SATURATED AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SPEEDS WEAKENING WITH TIME. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THAT OCEAN-INDUCED
CAPE VALUES WILL MAX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 500 J/KG WITH
NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.20. ALL IN ALL...THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY/CAT POPS
GOING TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND PERHAPS EVEN NANTUCKET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
WILL FALL WEST OF HYANNIS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMS BETWEEN
CHATHAM AND TRURO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY TODAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO
POUR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GFS MOS MAXES
AND NAM 2M TEMPS TO DERIVE THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF
I-495 WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY /EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY EARLY EVENING AS CAA WANES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
TO THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET AT OUTLYING
LOCATIONS. IN FACT...IF THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HOLD OFF TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS GO CALM
RIGHT OFF THE BAT...I COULD SEE TEMPS DIPPING TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SW NH AND NW MASS BY MIDNIGHT. UNDERCUT MOST VALUES FOR
LOWS AREA- WIDE. TEMPS MAY LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATE IF CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IS THICK ENOUGH. WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS
MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
SIGNAL THE START OF OUR WEEK-LONG WARMING TREND. MAXES SHOULD REACH
IN THE 30S WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*** A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ***

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY NICE DAY /AT LEAST BY EARLY JAN STANDARDS/
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...SUNSHINE AND LITTLE IF ANY WIND.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS ARE
LACKING. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIP SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT. GIVEN
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLC...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING FOR MAINLY RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN
MA /I-90 AND PTS NORTHWARD/ INTO SOUTHERN NH WHERE THE DEEP SNOWPACK
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FOR THE RISK OF A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS ALL INDICATE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY QPF...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WEATHER IMPACT.

SUNDAY...
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
DEPARTING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROF FROM SAT NIGHT. THEREFORE...ANY
LINGERING PRECIP SUN MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUE...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC CIRCULATING MILDER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN ANOMALOUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE...HOWEVER 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS AGREE ON ANOMALOUS WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS
REACHING +10C...WITH 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AS WARM AS +14C TUE THESE
925 MB TEMPS ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS /SUN-MON-TUE/ OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN /INCLUDING PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON CORRIDOR/ GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER. FARTHER NORTHWEST ITS A BIT MORE COMPLEX
GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK. THEREFORE...WENT ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN
GFS MOS GUID ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUID
ELSEWHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 60 DEGS IN THE PVD-TAN
CORRIDOR TUE AND OR WED.

AS FOR PRECIP...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EAST COAST RIDGE
ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON AND
TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NXT
TROF. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE
POPS. WARM AIR SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCNLY BRING VSBYS DOWN
TO A MILE AND CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
TODAY WEARS ON.

LONGER RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ORE-ORH-MHT AND PTS NORTH.
SUN...MVFR EARLY THEN VFR.
MON...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SETTLES OVERHEAD. ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH
SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN MOST
ZONES.

WILL ALSO SEE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS EVENING.

LONGER TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LEFTOVER 5-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
THEREAFTER S TO SW WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT EXPECTED SAT-SUN AND MON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING SPRAY AS AIRMASS WARMS BY FRI NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ004-012.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230>237-
     250-254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EKSTER
MARINE...NOCERA/EKSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002-003-005>011-013>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-
040945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
442 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO MINUS 10 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. FROSTBITE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SKIN IS EXPOSED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.

OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ004-012-040945-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
442 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-040945-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
442 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NOCERA