Small Craft Advisory 227, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SPEEDS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HAVE AMENDED THE ZFP TO REMOVE HEADLINES.

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO HOLD INSIDE THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FALL MAINLY EAST OF ROUTE
24...ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OVERALL
HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF CLEARING AND HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 4 AM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW THE
LAST SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING SOUTH FROM SE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS
SHOULD PASS SE OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES
BUILDING FROM THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND ALLOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TO COME TO AN END. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

NO FURTHER CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 925MB ARE 25 TO 30KTS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT AROUND 2 AM.  DESPITE ALL
THIS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN OVERNIGHT.  IT
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BELOW FREEZING WHERE THEY
ALREADY HAVE HAD A GOOD FREEZE SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DESPITE FULL SUN...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
SO...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
SOUTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND BARNSTABLE COUNTY.
THE ONLY PORTION OF BARNSTABLE COUNTY THAT WILL FREEZE SHOULD BE
FROM HYANNIS WESTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

CLASSIC OCTOBER PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 75 KT AT
850MB SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
COULD EVEN BE A CONVECTIVE FINE LINE JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF LATE AT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN THESE
SITUATIONS...A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION USUALLY KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
CASE THIS TIME AS WELL...BUT THERE/S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS
WELL AS ON THE SOUTH COAST. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. WENT HIGHER
THAN MOS FOR TEMPS SAT NIGHT AS SFC TEMPS IN THESE LLJ EVENTS ARE
ALMOST ALWAYS UNDERFORECASTED BY THE MODELS.

FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROMPTLY END
THE THREAT FOR RAIN.

THEREAFTER...NO REST FOR THE WEARY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
ALREADY BE APON US STARTING MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SPINNING UP A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST TUE AND WED. WE/RE PRETTY FAR OUT AT
THIS POINT...BUT WELL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
EVOLVES WITH TIME. COULD BE A RATHER INTERESTING EVENT...WITH
RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THAT/S WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SAYS FOR NOW...BUT AT THIS
RANGE THEY COULD EVENTUALLY DO A 180.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...CIGS A MIX OF VFR NEAR 4000 FEET AND MVFR AROUND 2000 FEET.
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR FMH/HYA/ACK WHERE SFC WND TO G25
CAN BE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR LATE SAT AFTN OR SAT NIGHT NIGHT. AS
POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM BOS-PVD SOUTHEAST TO THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. 60 TO 70 KNOT SOUTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED JUST A COUPLE OF
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY IMPROVE MARKEDLY WITH FROPA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALES HAVE BEEN DROPPED EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS UNTIL 4 AM AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...CAPE COD
BAY...AND NANTUCKET SOUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  SEAS DIMINISH
FURTHER TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 6 FT IN THESE AREAS AND 2 TO 4
FT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ALL QUIET FOR SEAS AND WINDS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. POTENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GALES TO
DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY SAT NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BUILD MARKEDLY AS WELL. COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS
BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ016-018>023.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ004-005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS  /NOT UPDATED/
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS  /NOT UPDATED/
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...EKSTER/STRAUSS

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