Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...BUT STILL A COUPLE OF CELLS
TO WATCH. ONE CELL IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT PUSHED 60 DBZ TO
NEARLY THE -20C LEVEL. BGM RADAR SHOWS A BOW SEGMENT SOUTHEAST OF
UTICA...NOT A HALL OF FAME-ER BUT IT IS NEAR COOPERSTOWN...AND IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER 4 OR 5 HOURS IT MAY BE OF CONCERN TO
FRANKLIN OR CHESHIRE COUNTIES.

THETA-E RIDGE AT 02Z WAS THROUGH THE CT VALLEY WITH BEST RIDGING IN
CT. THIS IS WHY STORMS MOVING FROM NY STILL CANT BE COUNTED OUT
QUITE YET. BUT WE STILL THINK THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
WEAKENING...SO WE WILL NOT BRING LATE NIGHT POPS INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO FOCUS ON CURRENT ACTION DIMINISHING
THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER THE FRONTS EASTWARD MOTION SLOWS DOWN AND PERHAPS STALLS OVER
THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON...AS NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE BACKS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE WEST IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...COLD POOL ALOFT /-17C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT WITH TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON WILL BE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPS
ALOFT SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MID LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND FIELD WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...WIND THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW...HOWEVER WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S...DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS VIA
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS LATER TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC/S LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE 23/12Z GFS AND ECMWF AND ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA...LEFT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS IT WAS.
MADE A FEW EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST WHERE THERE WAS A NEED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THAT DAY
THE PICK OF THE WEEK.  NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD MODEL DATA AND TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.  SO LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ON TSTM MAY
PASS SOUTH OF BDL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CONVECTION FADING IN MORE
STABLE AIR FARTHER EAST. EXPECT BRIEF IFR IN ANY TSTMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT-2 AM.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE HUMIDITY AND THE MOIST GROUND...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SCT
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH CIGS AND VSBY LWRG TO MVFR. A
FEW TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUESDAY EVENING...SCT TSTMS QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 02Z FOLLOWED BY VFR
ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SCATTERED MVFR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS EXPECTED. VSBY MAY LOWER TO 1-3 NM
IN FOG ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS

TUESDAY...
MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. THEN SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. WIND AND SEAS NOT AN ISSUE TUE...OTHER THAN IN ANY
STRONG TSTMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
TSTMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 10 PM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS /5 FT/ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-241930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
324 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS /WEST OF I495/ AND
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOME OF THESE STORMS SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND FLOODING RAINS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-241930-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
324 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WITH
THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE RHODE ISLAND WATERS AND ALSO THE CAPE ANN
WATERS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NOCERA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1040 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

CTZ002-003-240315-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-
1040 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 1039 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRISTOL...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WOLCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLAINVILLE AND BRISTOL BY 1050 PM EDT...
FARMINGTON BY 1100 PM EDT...
NEWINGTON AND NEW BRITAIN BY 1110 PM EDT...
WETHERSFIELD AND HARTFORD BY 1120 PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

WTB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

MAZ002-003-008>011-240630-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN
FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

AT 132 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER WESTHAMPTON...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NORTHAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORTHAMPTON BY 150 AM EDT...
HADLEY AND SOUTH HADLEY BY 200 AM EDT...
AMHERST AND GRANBY BY 210 AM EDT...
BELCHERTOWN BY 220 AM EDT...
PELHAM BY 230 AM EDT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE BERKSHIRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...FROM GREENFIELD TO CHICOPEE...BY 300
AM.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

WTB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
222 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     HAIL             AMHERST                 42.38N 72.52W
06/24/2008  E0.75 INCH       HAMPSHIRE          MA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HFRANK