Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WED. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES COVERED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS LINE WILL CROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AT
THE CURRENT TIME TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE GRADUALLY HEADING EAST THROUGH NEW YORK STATE TODAY.
INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...BUT LOTS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL. SURFACE BASED
CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG INLAND. IN ADDITION
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TODAY TO AROUND 1.6 G/KG.
A HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE DIVERGENT REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 250 MILLIBAR JET WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT.

OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WILL HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS ABUNDANT...BUT SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE HIGH AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. OVERALL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER ANY STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT TIME THOUGH...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING A LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...SO
STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH.

ANOTHER COMPLEX PATTERN OF FRONTS DEVELOPS AROUND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE TIMING ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...AREAS IFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IMPROVE TO
MVFR. SCT SHRA AND TSRA REDEVELOP TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST IN FOG AND STRATUS OFF THE OCEAN. EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED.

TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR. SCT SHRA AND TSRA
WILL REDEVELOP. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOG PATCHES MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. UNDERCUT WNA
SEAS SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE INVERSION.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS /5 FT/ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
544 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-240945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
544 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-240945-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
544 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
511 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

MAZ003-004-010-230945-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
511 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 505 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEVERETT...
OR ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMHERST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...NEW SALEM AND SHUTESBURY BY 520 AM
EDT...ATHOL AND ORANGE BY 530 AM EDT...PHILLIPSTON AND TEMPLETON BY
540 AM EDT...6 MILES WEST OF GARDNER BY 550 AM EDT.

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
544 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

MAZ003-004-NHZ011-231015-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
544 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 542 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHOL...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAFFREY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...ROYALSTON BY 550 AM EDT...
WINCHENDON AND RINDGE BY 600 AM EDT.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OF
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
557 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

CTZ002-231045-
HARTFORD CT-
557 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 552 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BRISTOL...OR ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF SOUTHBURY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...BRISTOL AND PLAINVILLE BY 630 AM
EDT...FARMINGTON AND NEW BRITAIN BY 640 AM EDT...AVON AND WEST
HARTFORD BY 650 AM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

MAZ004-026-NHZ011-012-015-231100-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 606 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW
IPSWICH...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAFFREY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
24 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...NEW IPSWICH AND GREENVILLE BY
620 AM EDT...MASON AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROOKLINE BY 630 AM
EDT...WILTON AND LYNDEBOROUGH BY 640 AM EDT...AMHERST AND MILFORD BY
650 AM EDT...MERRIMACK AND BEDFORD BY 700 AM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

CTZ002-231130-
HARTFORD CT-
648 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 647 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AVON...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF WEST HARTFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...BLOOMFIELD AND SIMSBURY BY 700 AM
EDT...WINDSOR AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANBY BY 710 AM EDT...WINDSOR
LOCKS AND SUFFIELD BY 720 AM EDT...ENFIELD BY 730 AM EDT.

BELK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

MAZ003-004-010-011-231215-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN
WORCESTER MA-
723 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

AT 720 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER WARE...OR
ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMHERST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE NEAR...HARDWICK AND WEST BROOKFIELD BY
730 AM EDT...NEW BRAINTREE AND NORTH BROOKFIELD BY 740 AM EDT...
OAKHAM AND BARRE BY 750 AM EDT...RUTLAND BY 800 AM EDT...HUBBARDSTON
BY 810 AM EDT...PRINCETON BY 820 AM EDT.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

BELK