Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER
WILL RETURN WED THROUGH FRI. A SERIES OF FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECIDED TO BUMP UP TIMING OF POPS AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY CLOSELY AS WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT. ANOTHER UPDATE
MAY BE NECESSARY SOON TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 AM. RADAR PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 12.5 K FT AND -20C ISOTHERM
AROUND 22.5 KFT. STORM MOTION OF 250 AT 25 KT.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A GORGEOUS DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT
AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLEAR AND FALL-LIKE NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WED NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S...BUT SOME UPPER 30S ARE EVEN LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NH AND
FAR NORTHWEST MA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND
ON THU AND HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 70 AGAIN. VERY NICE WEATHER.

THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP OFF THE COAST FRI ALLOWING SOME CLOUDINESS
TO APPROACH WESTERN AREAS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE
TOWARD EVENING. BUT OVERALL ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY REACHING UPWARD...MAINLY 70 TO 74.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF MODEL FOR LATTER PORTION OF FORECAST
PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH FEATURES. THE OVERALL
SCENARIO FROM FRI NIGHT INTO MON IS COMPLICATED AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS PUSH THROUGH REGION. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...
BUT DIVERGE ON THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND A
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH MOISTURE FROM IKE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE NHC TRACK SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON EACH RUN...
IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY THAT IKE MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND LINKING UP WITH ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...AM FORECASTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SHOULD GRADUALLY HELP FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF
SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

GMOS WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR WINDS AND TEMPS EXCEPT MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS...KEEPING THEM MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MON...
AND ALSO KEPT IT CLOUDY INSTEAD OF CLEARING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF LOCAL EARLY MORNING FOG PATCHES. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND SWEEPS ACROSS SNE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SFC WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND EARLY EVENING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROPA. VFR
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED.

OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VFR NO SIG WX.
SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT SCA WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR SHORE
WHERE WE WILL HAVE EXCELLENT MIXING OVER LAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET OUTER WATERS AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
MANY OF OUR WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF BRIEF 35 TO 50 KNOT WIND GUSTS WITH THE ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO
LATE EVENING.  OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ENTER THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.  WITH THE COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN EXPECT DECENT MIXING.

OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH PERIOD. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON
OUTERMOST WATERS SAT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EKSTER/GAF
MARINE...EKSTER/GAF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-100915-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME TYPICAL
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE TODAY...THE HIGHER
THE INSTABILITY...THE HIGHER THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-100915-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

NHZ011-091430-
CHESHIRE NH-
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

AT 956 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHESTERFIELD...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF BRATTLEBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 54 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...NELSON AND KEENE BY 1010 AM EDT...7
MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBLIN BY 1020 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

CTZ002-MAZ009>011-091515-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-HARTFORD CT-WESTERN HAMPDEN
MA-
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

AT 1044 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANVILLE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TORRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 54 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...GRANVILLE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GRANBY BY 1050 AM EDT...SOUTHWICK AND AGAWAM BY 1100 AM EDT...WEST
SPRINGFIELD AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLYOKE BY 1110 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTAGUE                42.53N 72.53W
09/09/2008                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1119 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHICOPEE                42.18N 72.57W
09/09/2008                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN ON CHICOPEE STREET

&&

WSIMPSON