Gale Watch 15, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST MON DEC 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TODAY...WITH ITS WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ARE MOVING OFFSHORE AS OF 330 AM. HOWEVER
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF
THE DRY SLOT.  AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CAPE
COD CANAL AT 330 AM...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER CAPE COD/ACK AND
MVY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH UP THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ADVANCES
NORTHEAST.

BY LATE MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP
LAYER SSW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD A MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +3C EASTERN MA
AND RI AT 18Z...SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE WEST WITH 0C FROM
BDL/BAF/EEN.  GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE /AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA/
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPS BETWEEN 55-60F GFS MOS REFLECTS THESE
NUMBERS...SO FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY BY DEC 1ST STANDARDS...AS NORMAL HIGHS
SHOULD BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN
RESPONSE TO TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND TURNING COOLER.

IN FACT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY YIELD SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA...INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. 850 TEMPS COOL TO -5C BY 12Z TUE. THIS YIELDS
BOUNDARY LAYER DELTA-T OF ABOUT 15C...WITH SOUTH COAST SST AROUND
+10C. IN ADDITION...MEAN TROF AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...SO DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT LARGER COLUMN OF
LIFT.

IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA AS GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA WITH DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS FORMING DUE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. STAYED NEAR MOS TEMPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY VISITS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. OVERALL IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND ALSO SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH SLOWER TIMING EXPECTED. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING ALTHOUGH THE SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY POTENT. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH 1000-500 DM
THICKNESSES DROPPING AT LEAST INTO THE 520S. DAILY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ECMWF DEVELOPS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WHILE THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z...THEN RAPIDLY BECOMING VFR AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY BDL/BAF/MHT/ORH. LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH BKN STRATOCUMULUS. WDLY SCT -SHRA
OR -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LATE -SHRA/-SHSN.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...
AT 4 AM WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CAPE COD CANAL. THIS FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AROUND 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SSW
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20G25KT.
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13-14Z.

TONIGHT...
SSW GALE FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE
EASTERN WATERS...AS GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE MORNING.
THEREFORE A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...W WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KT. POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT MAINLY E WATERS. SCA LIKELY WITH SEAS 8 TO 11
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...W WINDS DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SCA FOR 6 TO 8 FOOT
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY STILL BE NECESSARY
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO SW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KT LATE.

THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO
30 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 4
TO 7 FT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS FOR BDL...BOS...PVD AND ORH
WILL PROBABLY BE SENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

NWS TAUNTON NOVEMBER 2008 CLIMATE STATISTICS

AVERAGE HIGH 50.7F
AVERAGE MIN 32.4F
AVERAGE TEMP 41.6F
MONTHLY PCPN 5.40 INCHES
MONTHLY SNOW TRACE

HIGHEST MAX 70 DEGREES NOV 15TH
HIGHEST MIN 58 DEGREES NOV 15TH
LOWEST MIN 17 DEGREES NOV 21ST
LOWEST MAX 30 DEGREES NOV 22ND

MAX DAILY PCPN 2.24 INCHES NOV 25TH
MAX SNOWFALL TRACE NOV 30TH

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232>234.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254-255.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA/STRAUSS
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

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