Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 090415
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1015 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2008

COC095-115-090425-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-080709T0430Z/
SEDGWICK CO-PHILLIPS CO-
1015 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS AND
SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED 
INTO NEBRASKA.  IT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4053 10205 4055 10210 4089 10225 4098 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 332DEG 27KT 4065 10200

$$
BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
320 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SET OFF A ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR.  SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND MIGHT CYCLE THROUGH ONCE OR TWICE MORE BEFORE
EVENING COOLING TURNS OFF THE CONVECTION.  SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT BEING
UNABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MORE SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES AT 700
MB SHOW A LITTLE WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY CAP THE CONVECTION.  A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO STILL BE IN
PLACE TO INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...THE STALLED FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
FROM ADVECTING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE PLAINS DRY FOR BOTH DAYS. SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO FORM WITH MODELS SHOWING LIS AROUND ZERO
AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL
BELOW A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...THUS WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE DONT EXPECT ANY STORM DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. FRIDAY WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. WONT SEE A BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
SATURDAY FOR THE LAGGING COOLER AIR TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS
MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY OVER THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND KDEN SHOULD BE COME TO AN END BY 01Z.  VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AFTER
01Z WITH WINDS RETURNING TO DIURNAL PATTERNS.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KDRBY/MEIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1105 AM MDT TUE JUL 08 2008

COZ030>051-091200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1105 AM MDT TUE JUL 08 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  BY LATE THIS MORNING...A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND BEGUN
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE LOWER THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME
STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IT WILL BE HOTTER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING GREATER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/MEIER