Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 062115
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

COC001-005-031-062124-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-080706T2130Z/
ARAPAHOE CO-ADAMS CO-DENVER CO-
314 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DENVER...SOUTH
CENTRAL ADAMS AND WESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS 
STORM ACROSS THE AURORA AREA. 

LAT...LON 3976 10479 3985 10475 3990 10473 3986 10446
      3974 10452 3964 10459 3958 10465 3968 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 202DEG 14KT 3979 10459

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT MOIST AMS COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCT TSTMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS.  SOME MAY
CONTINUE ACRS THE ERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WL EXTEND TSTMS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THOSE AREAS.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPES FM 500-1500 J/KG.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FM THESE STORMS. SO FAR ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WILL FILL IN THE
NERN PLAINS LATE TNGT SO AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND 12Z.  FOR MONDAY...MAIN TROF WILL MOVE ACRS NRN CO WITH BEST
ASCENT IN THE AFTN AROUND 00Z.  CAPES MONDAY AFTN GENERALLY RANGE FM
700-1100 J/KG WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES.  STORM MOTION LESS
THAN 10 KTS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE
TSTMS.  MDLS SHOW BEST CAPES ALG SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
FOR NOW WL KEEP BROAD IN PLACE WITH SCT POPS FOR MOST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...MADE A NUMBER OF ADJUSTMENTS...MOST OF THEM SMALL...TO
THE FCST GRIDS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RUN-TO-RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SKY COVER AND POPS BEGINNING
MID-WEEK AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING LOOK MORE
PRONOUNCED NOW IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WARM A COUPLE DEGS C ON WEDNESDAY...
AND ANOTHER 4-5C ON THURSDAY WITH THE 700MB TEMPERATURE PEAKING
AROUND 18C BENEATH THE RIDGE. MAY SEE A FEW HIGH PLAINS LOCALES
PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK ON THURSDAY. A STEADY REDUCTION IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DVLP DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IF A STRONGER STORM MOVES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  FOR
TONIGHT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04Z.  COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DVLP LATE TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
RGN WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1035 AM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

COZ030>051-071200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1035 AM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH STORMS OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
LATE ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LATER IN THE WEEK...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...
AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND NEARBY PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COOPER/BAKER