Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 191449
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
849 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

COC039-073-191500-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-080619T1500Z/
LINCOLN CO-ELBERT CO-
840 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ELBERT AND CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 840 AM MDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DETECTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY HAS WEAKEN IN THE 
PAST SEVERAL MINUTES.  THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PULSING UP 
AND DOWN...AND THEREFORE RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS STORM 
MAY STILL PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS 
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIMON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIMON.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED BY WEATHER 
SPOTTERS IN EAST CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE 
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND 
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3930 10365 3911 10364 3921 10400 3933 10399 
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 280DEG 47KT 3921 10373

$$
BAKER

000
WWUS55 KBOU 191457
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
857 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

COC039-073-191504-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-080619T1500Z/
LINCOLN CO-ELBERT CO-
854 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ELBERT AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY AT 28 
MPH...HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THEREFORE WAS NO LONGER SEVERE.  
HOWEVER SOME STRENGTHENING MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM AS IT 
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY.   

LAT...LON 3930 10365 3911 10364 3921 10400 3933 10399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 281DEG 24KT 3920 10367

$$
BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
322 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH
TAIL END OF WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPED ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY AS MAIN WAVE PASSED EASTERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN LARIMER AND
NORTHWEST WELD WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED CELLS OVER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHEAST SURGE PASSED ACROSS PLAINS AND
BROUGHT 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS TO THE FOOTHILLS. BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. SEVERE TSTM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
03Z FOR FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN AREA OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WILL
KEEP THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...LOWER
POPS ELSEWHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD END MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS THE
TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA. COULD SEE SOME STORMS
LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES PAST MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME
SORT OF MCS DEVELOPING EAST OF COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY MOVE WEST INTO THE COLORADO PLAINS AND BRING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO AREA. THIS SHOWN ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
AND HUMIDITY PROGS. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME FOG FURTHER WEST. BUT
MODELS SUGGEST DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER GREAT BASIN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS AREA. NAM QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS
SUGGEST SOME ASCENT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS AREA AFTER 18Z. WILL LEAVE
THE BLANKET 20 POPS FOR NOW...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY FOCUS WHICH
COULD HELP IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS PLAINS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. SHAVED OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM TEMPERATURE GRIDS WHICH
SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NRN MX WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD POOL OF INSTBY.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTN
INDICATE CAPES FM 1200-1900 J/KG AT LIMON AND AKRON RESPECTIVELY.
THE CAPES ARE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR THURSDAY
EVENING.  THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH ITS AXIS
EASTERN CO BY SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
OVERALL WL CONTINUE TO THE MENTION OF ISOLD AFTN/EVNG POPS FOR THE
CWFA EACH DAY.  BEST CHC FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE FAR
ERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z ACROSS
LOCAL AIRPORTS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BEING LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS. EASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MVFR CEILINGS A
POSSIBILITY. ISOLATED STORMS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

D-L/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
545 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

COZ030>051-191700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
545 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM FORT MORGAN TO ELBERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER NOON.

GIMMESTAD/RJK