Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 PM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL SURGE PUSHED INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS THIS
AM...WITH 40S AND 50S DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. SURGE STABILIZED
AIRMASS ACROSS PLAINS AND HAS DELAYED CONVECTION. LAPSE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE VALUES NEARING 1800 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR GREELEY TO NORTH OF LIMON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO
ALOT OF CIN TO OVERCOME IN THIS AREA AS WELL. RADAR SHOWING A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OFF PALMER DIVIDE...WITH 20 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY BE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. LATEST NAM AND RUC GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER THIS
EVENING. BOTH THESE MODELS HAD TROUBLE WITH THE MORNING SURGE...SO
DIFFICULT TO PUT MUCH CREDENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
DATA...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WOULD BE ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WILL PUT THE HIGHER POPS THERE...WITH LESS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS LINGER FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS THERE. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
AND MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING BY MORNING OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. WILL MENTION SOME
FOG THERE AND DROP THE MENTION OF THE PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. ACROSS
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS AREA. THOUGH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING...
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP POPS ZERO
OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...TROUGH TO MOVE INTO WYOMING WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WESTERLY BY 18Z. QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS SHOW INCREASE
IN QG ASCENT AT THAT TIME. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE FLOW
GOING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT WEATHER AND POPS
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS AREA AFTER 18Z. WONT CHANCE
MUCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN ACCURACY OF RECENT MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
DIAGNOSING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO
WILL TRY TO KEY ON THE UPPER FEATURES AND CLIMATOLOGY.  AS A
RESULT...THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD WARRANT 20-40% POPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS FARTHER EAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
110-120+ KNOT JET MAX WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONG Q-G VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN SO EXPECT SOME
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG Q-G VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPER UPSLOPE
OCCURS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER STILL ON TARGET FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WILL
TRY FOR 2 DRY DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO
SNEAK BACK UNDER THE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES
LOOK VERY WARM FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH 700 MB READINGS
ADVERTISED TO BE AROUND +18C WHICH WOULD GIVE US HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER
AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM AFFECTING AREA AIRPORTS.
MAIN CONCERNT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AIRPORTS. SO...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
DL/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

COZ030>051-031200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 02 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF
THIS LINE...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL WITH WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOL ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR
SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY ABOVE 9500 FEET.  A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS SHOULD WILL RETURN IN ALL AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

DL/BARJENBRUCH