Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
215 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...DAYTIME CONVECTION STARTED A LITTLE EARLY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. DEWPOINTS CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
40S LOWER 50S TODAY OUT ON THE PLAINS TO HELP CUMULUS TO FORM BEFORE
NOON. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING GOOD THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG WITH CAPES OF 1200 J/KG. WITH WEAK Q-G VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS AND CONTINUED WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...KEPT THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS ALOFT. THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER
AND WARMER WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING 2 TO 3 DEGREES...RAISING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.  THERE
IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE Q-G VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OFF THE VARIOUS
MODELS FOR A WEAK SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS
COULD HELP ONE OR TWO STORMS PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS THEN.  OTHERWISE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.
EXPECT MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS A WEAK PUSH OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE PLAINS TOO STABLE FOR
ANY STORMS.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S.  THIS WOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
ALSO CREATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE PLAINS OPEN
TO OCCASIONAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY.  TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

/KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1125 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2008

COZ030>051-251200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1125 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...IF
ANY...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.