Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE WESTERN PALMER DIVIDE.  QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS.  ON THE PLUS SIDE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
UPPER 80S WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS.  RUC DOES SHOW AN INSTABILITY AXIS
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.  WILL KEEP SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS THERE JUST IN CASE.  AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WILL
MENTION THAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA.  GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR THE WARMEST OF THE GUDDANCE TEMPS.  THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE TOO LATE TO
GREATLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED.  THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE UPSLOPE MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FOR THURSDAY ITS ALL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SAME FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  FOR MOISTURE...BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT
DECREASES A BIT THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT AROUND.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY MOIST TOO.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 1.15 TO 1.45 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THEY ARE
IN THE 0.90 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
PLAINS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID 40S TO MID 50S F ON THURSDAY.
THE BEST THETA-E AXIS STAYS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE
PERIODS.  THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS...THE THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST CORNER ON   THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.  LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT VERY STEEP THROUGH THE PERIODS.  HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IS GOOD.  CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CAPE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS.  BY FRIDAY LATE
DAY...THE CAPE VALUES GET BETTER BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
HAVE VERY LITTLE.  THE QPF FIELDS HAVE DECENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE IS SOME
FOR THE MOUNTAINS ONLY LATE DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN A BIT MORE LATE
DAY FRIDAY INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS.  FOR
POPS... WILL LEAVE 30%-40%S GOING FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN
SPITE OF THE STABILITY ISSUES.  AFTER ALL THE UPSLOPE IS PRETTY DEEP
AND THE MOISTURE IS UBIQUITOUS.  ON THURSDAY...WILL LEAVE 30%-40%S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND REDUCE THE PLAINS TO 10%-20%S.  POPS WILL BE
SIMILAR IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS A TAD HIGHER ON THE
PLAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAYS HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAYS...FRIDAYS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  FOR THE
LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FOUR DAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES SEEM
NEAR NORMALS...AND THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND.  WILL KEEP/GO WITH
10%-30%S POPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RTG/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1113 AM MDT TUE AUG 05 2008

COZ030>051-061200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1113 AM MDT TUE AUG 05 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
BY MID AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING.  WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY.  OTHERWISE THE PLAINS CAN EXPECTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RTG/RJK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
303 PM MDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     HAIL             1 WNW THE PINERY        39.46N 104.75W
08/05/2008  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLOUIS