Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS85 KBOU 210256
RFWBOU

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
856 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2008

COZ241-245>247-249-210400-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-080721T0300Z/
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
WASHINGTON COUNTY-
INCLUDING...CASTLE ROCK...ELBERT...FONDIS...KIOWA...LARKSPUR...
BENNETT...BYERS...DEER TRAIL...LEADER...AGATE...HUGO...LIMON...
MATHESON...FORDER...KARVAL...KUTCH...PUNKIN CENTER...AKRON...
COPE...LAST CHANCE...OTIS
856 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 MPH AND HUMIDITIES HAVE
INCREASED ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND DRY ON
MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME AS THEY WERE TODAY.

$$

GIMMESTAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR HAS SHOWN SOME
INCREASE IN MSTR DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS WHICH LED TO SOME ISOLATED
STORMS LAST EVENING. APPEARED SOME COOLING ALOFT TO -7C AT 500MB
WHICH ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MAYHAPS A WEAK WAVE(THOUGH
COUDNT REALLY FIND ONE). ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES NOTED WITH PW VALUES
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THOUGH ON THE WEST SLOPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED ABOUT .20 OF AN INCH AT GJT. OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE
CONTINUING ACROSS UTAH AND FAR WRN COLORADO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
TOO EXCITED ABOUT STORMS TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...SO
STORM ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS MAY BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER
GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...EXPECT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY
TODAY...ESP OVER MTN REGIONS AS MSTR SEEPS EASTWARD. ANOTHER HOT DAY
IN STORE ACROSS ERN CO AS TEMPS EXPECTED 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 100. RECORD FOR DENVER
TODAY IS 105 SO NOT EXPECTING THAT RECORD TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THE QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE WEAK UPWARD MOTION FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIODS. MODELS HAVE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  FOR
MOISTURE...THE NAM NOW SHOWS DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
...AS DOES THE GFS...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.90 TO 1.20
INCH RANGE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A DECENT THETA-E
AXIS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO LATE DAY MONDAY.  THERE IS A STRONG AXIS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE DAY TUESDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY...A
BIT HIGHER ON TUESDAY.  THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE WARM AND THE LAPSE
RATES HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP BOTH LATE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY MONDAY...WITH
MINIMAL VALUES OVER THE PLAINS.  TUESDAY IS SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES.  FOR POPS ON BOTH DAYS...WILL GO WITH
20-30%S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...10%S ON THE PLAINS.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...MONDAYS HIGHS ARE 2-4 C COOLER THAN SUNDAYS.
TUESDAYS ARE 0-1.5 C COOLER THAN MONDAYS.  WILL LEAVE THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SERLY LOW
LVL FLOW BY AFTN HOURS. ISOLATED TS BETWEEN 22-03Z TODAY WITH MAINLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
SWE/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2008

COZ030>051-211200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1030 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BETWEEN 11:30 AM AND 2 PM TODAY. ONE OR TWO OF THESE GUSTY
MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DRIFT EAST OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND
NEARBY PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AND WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 40 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THESE HIGH BASED STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ONCE AGAIN UP NEAR 100
DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BAKER/COOPER