Tornado Warning 60, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 040500
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ALC063-107-119-040530-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080304T0530Z/
SUMTER AL-GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-
1100 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS...WESTERN GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER
COUNTIES...

AT 1057 PM CST...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
EMELLE...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GEIGER AND WEST UNION BY 1105 PM CST...
  PANOLA BY 1110 PM CST...
  WARSAW AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST GREENE BY 1115 PM CST...
  PLEASANT RIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGE DOWNER AIRPORT BY
  1120 PM CST...
  LEWISTON...ALICEVILLE AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCMULLEN BY 1125 PM
  CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3276 8839 3283 8837 3297 8836 3317 8815
      3299 8794 3282 8818 3279 8820 3271 8833
      3266 8838 3268 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 224DEG 56KT 3281 8840

$$

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 040514
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1114 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ALC063-107-119-040530-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080304T0530Z/
SUMTER AL-GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-
1114 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS...WESTERN GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER
COUNTIES...

AT 1110 PM CST...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EMELLE...OR ABOUT 16 
MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GEIGER BY 1120 PM CST...
  PANOLA BY 1125 PM CST...
  WARSAW...WEST GREENE AND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANT RIDGE BY
  1130 PM CST...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3276 8839 3283 8837 3297 8836 3317 8815
      3299 8794 3282 8818 3279 8820 3271 8833
      3266 8838 3268 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 229DEG 41KT 3281 8832

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
950 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER THETA E AIR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HENCE...THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE IN
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. A SQUALL LINE IS DEVELOPING MAINLY FROM
INTERSTATE 20 SOUTHWARD WITH SEVERAL BOWING AND LEWPY STRUCTURES
NOTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY THAT WILL ENCOMPASS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA GENERALLY FROM TUSCALOOSA TO LOWNDES
AND WESTWARD.

EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AREAS BY 11 PM. TIMING ON THE CURRENT
HWO STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME WILL BE IF THE SQUALL LINE ACCELERATES...
THE TIMING WILL BE JUST A BIT SOONER...AT LEAST FOR AREAS CENTRAL.

THE MAIN MODE OF STORMS WILL BE A SQUALL LINE...WITH A DISTINCT
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADO STILL EXISTS. DUE TO THE
RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN HAS ALSO BECOME A THREAT. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL APPROACH
WESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 06Z AND THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A PREDOMINANT BROKEN DECK AROUND 5K
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE LINE AND
MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE LINE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT.

88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008/

UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WEATHER IS STILL EVOLVING UPSTREAM OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE NOTICED THINGS PROGRESSING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST.  THIS DISCUSSION WILL POINT OUT SOME OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTICED IN THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS.

STARTING WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
UNDERGOING RAPID CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX IS
GENERATING HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
NORTHERN MS.  SOME OF THE HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEEN ANALYZED AS HIGH AS
7MB OVER A THREE HOUR PERIOD.  AS THIS DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES IT SHOULD BEGIN TO SPEED UP SLIGHTLY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL OR CENTRAL TN.  ANOTHER
FACTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE THE INCREASE OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LAGGING COLD FRONT.  EXPECTING THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ALSO HAVE NOTICED THAT
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED UPSTREAM AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CENTRAL TN AND POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF AL.

AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS SOME
WORK TO DO IN PULLING THE BEST UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD.  THIS WILL BE
THE IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH WHEN TRYING TO FORECAST IF ANY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE LINE.
RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION.  WE ALSO STILL
HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT AROUND 750MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
KNOCKED DOWN...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONE MORE ITEM ON THE AGENDA WILL BE HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP
JUST UPSTREAM AND HOW IT TRANSLATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT
OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

17/KLAWS

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

07/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-041230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
645 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...
TORNADOES...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS 10 PM IN WESTERN ALABAMA...AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PRIMARILY COME IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE...ALONG AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL
STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS EVENT AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. TAKE THE TIME NOW TO
GO OVER YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO IS FUNCTIONAL...AND HAS FRESH BATTERIES FOR BACKUP POWER.
IF YOU HAVE A WEATHER RADIO WITH SAME FUNCTIONALITY...MAKE
SURE IT IS PROPERLY PROGRAMMED TO RECEIVE THE DESIRED WARNINGS
FOR THE DESIRED COUNTIES.

AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR
HIGHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LAST AS LATE AS 10 AM
TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR COUNTIES NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.

GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

75/LINHARES