Severe Thunderstorm Warning 436, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY.  WILL DO A REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD TO COVER
LEFT OVER WEATHER WITH STORMS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.  FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF
THE AFTERNOON AND END DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE 70S. HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE WEST IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 70 TO 75.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA...
WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING WESTWARD.  FOR THE MOST PART WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.  AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DEEPENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS.  HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MAINLY CHANCE WORDING MENTIONED.  HIGH
90 TO 95 FOR THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NICE AND UNIFORM CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...AND THIS SHOULD BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE HUMID...AND IS GETTING A BIT STAGNANT. I
WENT AHEAD AND FORECASTED ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO EVENTUALLY SEE A FEW
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 2 MILES...OR EVEN SOME CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
THOUGH...SO WILL HANDLE IT IN LATER FORECASTS/UPDATES.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  94  69  96  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    72  95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  97  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  74  99  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      73  97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      72  93  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  74  97  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
TROY        72  95  72  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-031818-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
118 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 9 PM
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ALZ020-022115-
CHEROKEE-
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PAYNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  NEW MOON.
  GAYLESVILLE.
  FULLERTON.
  WATERHOUSE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             5 NNE GAYLESVILLE       34.33N 85.54W
08/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ON CR-796 NORTH OF GAYELSVILLE

&&

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ALZ014-022200-
WINSTON-
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR ADDISON...OR 7 MILES NORTH
OF ARLEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ADDISON.
  HELICON.
  ARLEY.
  FALLS CITY.
  WILSON BEND.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ALZ013-015-022200-
FAYETTE-WALKER-
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR OAKMAN...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JASPER...MOVING SOUTH AT 16 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  OAKMAN.
  BOLEY SPRINGS.
  GOODSPRINGS.
  THE WYE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10/ARM