Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF BY 10
PM. MUCH LESS COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS MAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCES TO BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE EXIST. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BOUNDARY BEING
PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION REMAINS...WHERE WILL THIS BOUNDARY STALL OUT AT? THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...WOULD INDICATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OR JUST SOUTH. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES...OF COURSE...WOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND
90...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

16

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MGM AND
TOI FOR AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL.  ONCE THINGS DO DEVELOP...AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...WILL UPDATE TAFS
IN THOSE CITIES TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREDOMINANT TSRA IF/WHEN
NEEDED.  NORTH OF THERE...MORNING CLOUDINESS KEPT TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WHICH IN TURN HAS KEPT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DOWN. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS
FOR NOW.

MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TONIGHT...AND
LESS OF A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  93  69  89  70 /  10  30  20  50  30
ANNISTON    69  94  72  89  68 /  10  30  20  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  74  93  73  90  68 /  10  20  20  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  72  94  73  92  70 /  10  20  20  50  30
CALERA      72  93  72  90  69 /  10  20  20  50  30
AUBURN      71  92  72  93  68 /  10  20  20  50  30
MONTGOMERY  74  94  74  93  71 /  20  30  20  50  40
TROY        72  95  72  93  70 /  20  30  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

16/61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-121800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF NOON AND 9 PM.
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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