Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SCATTERED DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW OTHER CONVECTIVE
IMPULSES OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AFFECTING LOCATIONS
IN THE EAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THOSE IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND REFIRE. CLOUD COVER COULD PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT EARLY...BUT AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITHIN A
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CONVECTION AREAWIDE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
INSTABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTED.

UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

14

&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION.

ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AREAWIDE. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT A FEW TERMINALS. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON IS MODERATE.

WINDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-060000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

ALZ039-051830-
MARENGO-
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1247 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NANAFALIA...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINDEN...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  NANAFALIA.
  NICHOLSVILLE.
  SWEET WATER.
  WAYNE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

ALZ050-051845-
BARBOUR-
106 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 104 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAYTON...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIO...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CLAYTON.
  MILLERS FORD.
  GAINO.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

14

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