Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A FEW WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE
BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FEW DISTINCT MCVS CLEARED THE SKIES AND ALLOWED
THE INSTABILITY TO CLIMB QUICKLY. THEREFORE...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AROUND 2 INCHES N A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME/GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH/DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7
PM...THEN MENTIONED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM...WITH
ISOLATED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT SITUATION A BIT BETTER THEN THE NAM SO LEANED THAT WAY. GFS
HAS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO AT LEAST NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH.

LEANED A BIT HIGHER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON LOWS TONIGHT AND A BIT
WARMER FOR SUNDAY...BUT LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING FORECAST
NUMBERS.

75/LINHARES

.LONG TERM...
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US...AND THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST VERY
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM MCS IN THIS
PATTERN MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S...YES UPPER
70S...WEDNESDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50. ALTHOUGH I WOULD LOVE
TO SEE SOME OF THESE CONDITIONS...FEEL CONFIDENT IN GOING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND
WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
EXIST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AREAWIDE. SINCE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDELY DISTRIBUTED
BUT NUMEROUS...WILL START OFF WITH MENTION OF VCTS FOR MGM/TOI AND
HOLD IT OFF UNTIL 20Z FOR ALL OTHER SITES. WILL KEEP THIS MENTION
THROUGH 02Z AT ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VCSH THROUGH 05Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR EXCEPT DIRECTLY UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS WHERE CEILINGS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO MVFR AND
VIS TO IFR. MGM/TOI WILL EXHIBIT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WHERE SOME
NORTHERN LIGHT COMPONENT WILL BE NOTICED. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AREAWIDE SOME MENTIONED MVFR VIS 10-13Z.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  67  90  67 /  30  20   0  10  10
ANNISTON    68  88  68  92  68 /  30  30   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  89  70  91  69 /  40  20   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  92  69  94  70 /  40  20   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  69  92  69 /  40  30  10  10  10
AUBURN      69  87  69  89  68 /  40  50  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  91  70  93  71 /  40  50  20  20  10
TROY        70  87  69  91  68 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

ALZ013-142000-
FAYETTE-
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 226 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GLEN ALLEN TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINFIELD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE...MOVING EAST
AT 11 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
256 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

ALZ023-142045-
TUSCALOOSA-
256 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOLEY SPRINGS TO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAMANTHA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTH
OF CARBON HILL TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF GORDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
13 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

ALZ040>044-142130-
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LOWNDES-MONTGOMERY-
344 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...DALLAS...ELMORE...LOWNDES
AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURNSVILLE TO COOSADA...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VALLEY GRANDE TO
MILLBROOK...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MULBERRY.
  GARDNER ISLAND.
  BOYLSTON.
  MONTGOMERY ZOO.
  HUNTER.
  SELMA DRAG STRIP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTGOMERY              32.35N 86.28W
06/14/2008  E0.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 INCH ACCUMULATION PER HOUR. 3-4 INCHES OVER DOWNTOWN
            ROADWAYS.

&&

10.5