Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ACTIVE SHORT TERM AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS DECIDED TO RELEASE ITS
STRONG GRIP FROM OVER THE AREA.  THIS HAS ACTED TO BRING MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEN STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  THIS
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A DECENT AMOUNT FOLKS TO
RECEIVE AS SHOT AT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
THOUGH AS THE WESTERN CWA MAY GET LEFTOUT DUE TO PASSAGE TIMING
ISSUES.  ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME...HOWEVER...AS THINGS HAVE TRENDED
DRY ONCE AGAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WEAKNESSES DEVELOPING IN THE
RIDGE AS SHORT WAVES MOVE TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT RIDGE...FIND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN SH/TS
CHANCES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR HIGHS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND BACK TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SO
ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY AFTER 02Z. WINDS ALONG THIS OUTFLOW ARE AROUND 25KT BUT
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW MINUTES...AFFECTING EET BHM AND TCL. A
FEW PATCHY AREAS OF BR OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY AT ANB AND TCL.

FOR TOMORROW...AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG WITH LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MID LEVEL COLD POCKET MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND FEEL AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE HIGHER THAN TODAY. WENT WITH VCTS ALL LOCATIONS BEGINNING
18Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

17/14/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
730 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-110000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
730 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ANY PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW BETWEEN 1 AND 8 PM. THE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS DUE TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURST IN THIS AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA LEFT
OVER FROM MONDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ043-100030-
ELMORE-
703 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ELMORE COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELMORE...OR NEAR WETUMPKA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SPEIGNER.
  JORDAN DAM.
  DEXTER.
  TEN CEDAR ESTATES.
  WEOKA MILLS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
735 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ013-022-023-100100-
FAYETTE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
735 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE...PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 733 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ASHCRAFT CORNER...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GORDO...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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