Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THE ACTION WAS CLUSTERED
WHERE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION LINGERED
AND INTERSECTED. OUR ATTENTION THIS EVENING TURNS TO THE WEST...
WHERE A BIGGER AND BADDER AREA OF STORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH
ARKANSAS. LOTS OF WIND REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MCS...AND IT
SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MAKES STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS. PRESENT TRAJECTORY WOULD EVENTUALLY PUT THIS INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 00-02Z...AND THEN EASTWARD FROM THERE
AFTER THAT.

ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN STATES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP RETURN OUR AREA TO A PATTERN MORE
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME. WITH THE LACK OF NEW GFS MODEL DATA IN
AWIPS...I DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BEYOND TONIGHT.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE SOUTH
BEING LEFT OUT FOR NOW. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THIS ROUND WEAKENING
JUST A BIT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SITES A FEW HOURS
AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THE LATE EVENING GIVING WAY TO JUST VICINITY
SHOWERS.  LOOK FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING DUE TO ALL OF THE GROUND MOISTURE.  TOMORROW EXPECT
CB AND THUNDER TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER ALL SITES.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-022030-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...HIGH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING MARION,
WINSTON, LAMAR, FAYETTE, AND WALKER COUNTIES...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 6 PM. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA...INCLUDING LOCATIONS IN
AND AROUND CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...CENTERVILLE...BIRMINGHAM...
CLANTON...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...ALEXANDER CITY AND
WEDOWEE...THE THREAT FROM ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. AFTER 7 PM...THE SAME SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

FINALLY...LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 80...THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 5 PM THROUGH SUNSET. LATER ON IN THE EVENING...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL
AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED CELLS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER 12 PM IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 CAN EXPECT DEVELOPMENT AFTER 5 PM.

THE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT BE CONFINED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THOUGH HEATING WILL EXACERBATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
SUNSET...SO STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND MAKE SURE YOUR RADIO ALERT TONE IS TURNED ON BEFORE GOING TO
BED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY...AS THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY WILL BE LINGERING
ACROSS THE STATE.  AGAIN...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SUNDAY.

27/SWU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             SYLACAUGA               33.18N 86.26W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       TALLADEGA          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SYLACAUGA.

&&

GOLDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ALZ030>032-039-012345-
GREENE-HALE-MARENGO-SUMTER-
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE...HALE...MARENGO AND SUMTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 606 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORKLAND...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF DEMOPOLIS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FORKLAND.
  BIRDINE.
  DUFFYS BEND.
  DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM.
  DEMOPOLIS.
  ARCOLA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JD/81

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