Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE STATE LINE LEADING
TO SEVERAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.  LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED IN
NATURE VERSES PULSE DUE TO THE BOUNDARY INDUCED FORCING AND SHEAR
PROFILES.  DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH WILL KEEP
THE CAPE VALUES HIGHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.  QUESTIONS
REMAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BEST FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE.  HAVE NOTICED THAT WE ARE NOT GETTING AIRMASS
THUNDER ACTIVITY SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SAYS A LOT.

TOMORROW WILL BE A DIFFERENT DAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER A DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER.  IT WILL
FEEL LIKE SPRING FOR AT LEAST A DAY.

17/KLAWS

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

DRIER AIR FILTERS IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM ALL AREAS....ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AXIS
LURKS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MOST CWA. MID 80S EXPECTED FAR SOUTH
TOMORROW BUT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXPECTED NORTH. LOWS NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 50S AND 60S.

75/LINHARES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES AND EVEN THE DGEX ARE
EXHIBITING FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS IF THE THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL ONLY SLOWLY
CHANGE DUE TO THE BLOCKING STRUCTURE ACROSS THE CONUS. TWO LARGE
LARGE CYCLONES ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN US AND NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AT START OF PERIOD WITH A STOUT BUT SKINNY RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN UNBLEMISHED.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND REMAINS NEARBY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH WHILE A JET STREAK
RIDES BY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. WINDS ALOFT ARE INITIALLY
CONVERGENT AND THEN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY...OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA AND STORMS WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THIS SAID...
WILL NOT MENTION ANY STRONG STORMS YET BUT THIS PERIOD BEARS
MONITORING.

LARGE UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY PUSHING THE MEANDERING FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD...BACKDOOR FRONT.
SO AFTER THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND FORECAST WILL BE DRY THEREAFTER.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINLY AFFECT ANB OVER THE
NEXT TWO HOURS. BHM COULD HAVE VCTS...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.

THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COULD HAVE WINDS GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

17/75/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-211800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG
AREA LAKES...SO CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF BOATING IS PLANNED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY TODAY.

17/KLAWS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             11 NE TALLADEGA         33.54N 85.96W
05/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       TALLADEGA          AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN MUNFORD.

&&

GGOGGINS