Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

UPPER SUPPORT IS PASSING ON BY AND THINGS ARE WINDING DOWN. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO LIVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
LAYING OVER AS UPPER SYSTEM EXITS STAGE RIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY PRETTY MUCH IN CHECK AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ALOFT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NO REPLACEMENT COMING.

JONES/90

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES DURING EACH AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO BE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 AREA-WIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH DAY MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER EASTERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM (SFC FRONT) MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT POINTS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. BEST
INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST DURING THE EVENING. WILL FORECAST
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL TAPER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST (20
PERCENT) TO EAST (50 PERCENT) WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EXTREME EAST AS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND
80 TO 85 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ADVANCES
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SYSTEM APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. HIGHS EACH DAY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
NORTH AND 80 TO 85 SOUTH.  LOWS IN THE 50S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN MAINLY 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z DISCUSSION.

THE AREA OF RAIN IS NOW POSITIONED FROM A DEMOPOLIS TO ANNISTON
LINE...AND ALL AREAS SOUTH. ANB AND EET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER WILL BE JUST RAIN. BHM AND TCL  WILL
SEE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MGM WILL BEGIN
TO SEE RAIN AND MAYBE A TS OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ISOLATED. THE
MAIN SQUALL LINE IS DWINDLING AND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MGM AND TOI.
IN FACT TOI MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FROM 2 TO 5Z. BY 8
TO 10Z WILL SEE A LOW DECK DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 500 FEET
BY DAYBREAK WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES. CLEARING BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-092340-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
630 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS DWINDLING...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE THE NORM...BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS STILL A
SMALL POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
SYSTEM APPEARS SIGNIFICANT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS IN FUTURE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE NEEDED
ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
507 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             TRUSSVILLE              33.64N 86.59W
05/08/2008  M0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ALTON ROAD IN TRUSSVILLE.

&&

SUNGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ALZ040-041-082330-
AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
607 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA AND DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SELMA...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SELMA UNIVERSITY.
  SELMONT-WEST SELMONT.
  VALLEY GRANDE.
  BURNSVILLE.
  GARDNER ISLAND.
  MULBERRY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JONES/90

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRENT                   32.94N 87.16W
05/08/2008                   BIBB               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES AND MULITPLE TREES DOWNED.

&&

SUNGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
723 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ALZ043>046-090115-
BULLOCK-ELMORE-MACON-MONTGOMERY-
723 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BULLOCK...ELMORE...MACON AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 723 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANTELOUS...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF PRATTVILLE...MOVING
EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HUNTER.
  MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE.
  MONTGOMERY.
  BARACHIAS.
  AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY.
  MOUNT MEIGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JONES/90