Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
554 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 8 PM...ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR NEAR MIDNIGHT AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.  RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE AROUND ONE INCH AREA-
WIDE WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.  STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
OTHER SECTIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT FOR WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.  AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY ON FRIDAY SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTH AND 40 TO 45 SOUTH.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY MID 40S NORTH
AND 50 TO 55 SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF DRY
BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY IN THE FAST MOVING
AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WEST AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS SATURDAY 55 TO 65...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
30S...HIGHS SUNDAY 60 TO 65 AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER JET AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME INTO BETTER PHASE ALONG WITH WARM READINGS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS.  HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S EXTREME NORTH TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY.  AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LET THE ACTIVITY PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ON TOP OF TCL AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO BHM AND EET AROUND 1Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL STILL BE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS. FOR THIS UPDATE
WENT WITH INITIAL TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT AS THE RAIN
BEGINS...WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT TWO HOURS AND
THEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF THE
TREND CONTINUES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL BE TCL AT 6Z...BHM AND EET AT
8Z...ANB AND MGM AT 10Z AND TCL AT 11Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ABOUT 2 HOURS AFTER FROPA. WILL SEE SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFTER 20 AND 21Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ITSELF MOVES OUT.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TIL 4 AM FOR ALL ZONES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-020039-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
639 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT WILL EXIST FOR PIKE AND
BARBOUR COUNTIES...FROM 8 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT HERE
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR THROUGH 4 AM. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY. SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY.