Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S...COMPARED TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA. WEDGE WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS
PACKAGE FOR TODAY. VERY WARM AND JUICY BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
ACROSS WEST ALABAMA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING WITH UPPER 60S EXPECTED WEST OF I-65.

LINE OF NEARLY CONTINUES THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM DALLAS TEXAS
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO KENTUCKY. THE LINE HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ALL
NIGHT AVERAGING 2500 LIGHTNING STRIKES PER 15 MINUTES. THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE INTO NW
ALABAMA AROUND 10 AM. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND THIS TREND MAY INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.  SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -5 CELSIUS...CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 60 KNOTS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BOW SEGMENTS ALONG
SQUALL LINE...BUT SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...AND
TORNADOES A REAL POSSIBILITY. TRAINING CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY WANE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS AND MID LEVEL FORCING DECREASES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM SUNRISE
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 NOON.  LOW CLOUDS WILL EXTEND WELL NORTH OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS 850-700MB TROF STILL BACK NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON SATURDAY.  SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET
SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A FEW DAYS OF QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK WILL TAKE SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE REGION
IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. COULD SEE THE
INFLUENCE OF WEDGING AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INTRODUCED CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND STALL OUT LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...KEEPING THE
AREA IN A WARM MOIST AIRMASS. KEPT FORECAST CONSERVATIVE SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH...AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH BEFORE IT STALLS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEDGE FRONT OVER EAST ALABAMA IS STARTING TO LOSE IT HOLD DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. CIGS EAST OF I-65 ARE AOB
1000 FEET AGL...WITH CIGS 15-25 ELSEWHERE. FOG HAS NOT REALLY BEEN A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS GENERALLY AT 5 MILES OR MORE. LOWER
CIGS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA WILL RISE THIS MORNING TO ARND 2500 FEET
BY 17Z. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE KTCL-KBHM LINE BY 17Z. THE SQUALL LINE WILL
PRODUCE MAY PRODUCE WINGS GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM. THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTIUE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH KMGM ARND 22Z. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE
SQUALL LINE BY 3-6 HOURS AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND
FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  54  66  49  78 / 100 100  30  10  10
ANNISTON    74  58  68  51  78 /  70 100  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  54  68  51  78 / 100 100  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  55  69  50  80 /  90 100  20  10  10
CALERA      77  58  68  51  78 /  70 100  30  10  10
AUBURN      78  60  72  54  76 /  50  80  70  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  63  72  53  81 /  50  80  70  10  10
TROY        80  63  72  53  79 /  40  80  70  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7AM TO 7PM FOR ALL COUNTIES.

&&

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